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Penguins February Preview and Predictions

In my January Preview, I predicted that the Penguins would have a very strong January, with the potential to go 8-3-2 and pick up 18 of 26 available points on the month.  In fact, the Penguins finished the month going 8-3-2 and picked up 18-points.  This was the second consecutive monthly preview in which our projection nailed the outcome exactly.  It is now time to look forward to see what the month of February has in store for the Penguins. 

What I didn’t predict for January was that the Penguins injury woes would mount and that they would lose several more key players.  Midway through the month, the number of Penguins players on the injured reserve list grew from 3 to 6 players, as Sidney Crosby (ankle), Tyler Kennedy (mono) and Adam Hall (groin) all were added to the list.  While not on the IR list, the Penguins lost the services of Colby Armstrong (Hip/Flu) for several games.  Yet, despite the continued adversity, the Penguins still found a way to win 62% of the games in January and picked up 69% of the available points to arrive within a point of both the Atlantic Division lead and 2nd place in the Eastern Conference.  Unfortunately, the IR list will continue to be a challenge for the Penguins in the coming month. 

So what lies ahead for the Penguins in February?  The Penguins will play 14-games for a possible 28-points.  Unlike January, the majority of the games (8) will be played at home, with 6 being played on the road.  Of the 14-games, the Penguins play just 4-games against Atlantic Division rivals in February when they face off against the Devils on the road, the Flyers at home and 2-games against the Islanders (1 at home, and 1 away).  They will play the Carolina Hurricanes and Boston Bruins twice each during the month (1 at home, 1 away).  Five games will be played against teams that are currently above them in the Eastern Conference Standings (Senators, Flyers, Hurricanes (x2), and the Canadiens) and 7 will be played against teams that are currently below them (Islanders (x2), Bruins (x2), Sabres, Panthers, Devils).  The other 2-games will be played against the Western Conference when they host the West’s #2 San Jose Sharks and the #15 Los Angeles Kings. 

As far as the schedule, here is the February layout for the Penguins (28-19-4), 60-points:

2 Feb:  Carolina Hurricanes (25-24-4) – 54 points 
4 Feb:  @ New Jersey Devils (28-19-3) – 59-points
7 Feb:  New York Islanders (24-21-6) – 54 points 
9 Feb:  Los Angeles Kings (20-29-3) – 43 points
10 Feb:  Philadelphia Flyers (28-16-5) – 61 points
13 Feb:  Boston Bruins (26-19-5) – 57 points
14 Feb:  @ Carolina Hurricanes (25-24-4) – 54 points
17 Feb:  @ Buffalo Sabres (23-21-6) – 52 points
19 Feb:  Florida Panthers (22-25-5) – 49 points
21 Feb:  @ Montreal Canadiens (27-15-8) – 62 points
23 Feb:  Ottawa Senators (32-15-4) – 68 points
24 Feb:  San Jose Sharks (28-16-7) – 63 points
26 Feb:  @ New York Islanders (24-21-6) – 54 points
28 Feb:  @ Boston Bruins (26-19-5) – 57 points

February starts with 5 of the first 6 games at home.  The schedule gets rough towards the end of February with 4-games coming in 6-nights (2 at home and 2 on the road). 

Last season, after coming into their own in January by going 8-2-2, the Penguins kept rolling by going 9-3-1 in February, 12-3-2 in March, and 2-1-0 in April.  By comparison, the Penguins are ahead of last season’s performance through January with 60-points (28-19-4) in 51-games this season vs 56-points (24-17-8) in 49-games last season.  I think it is unlikely that the Penguins will be able to maintain the similar level of success in February this season, given the key injuries to the their line-up.  To be successful, the Penguins will need to find offense from the remaining lineup and contributions from their Wilkes-Barre/Scranton call-ups.  They may also need to find a quality offensive player via trade to keep the Penguins in the playoff hunt in the extremely tight Eastern Conference until they can get Sidney Crosby and Gary Roberts back in the lineup.   

I think that the Penguins fortunes in February will be mixed, but they will stay slightly above 0.500.  I am projecting a February record of 7-6-1 with the Penguins picking up of 15 of the 28 available points.  This will require consistent offensive output from Malone, Gonchar, Sykora, Malkin, and Staal, and continued good play in net by Conklin.  If the Penguins can find ways to win without some of their top players in the lineup, it should bode well come playoff time (assuming the top players can find their way back onto the ice by mid-March).   

Lets Go Pens!

Penguins Fall to Thrashers 4-1

The Pittsburgh Penguins lost to the Atlanta Thrashers 4-1 on Wednesday, one night after beating the New Jersey Devils 4-2.  The Penguins outshot the Atlanta Thrashers 30-27, but were only able to put 1 (legitemately) past Kari Lehtonen on a chip shot by Ryan Whitney midway through the 3rd period.  Despite giving up 4-goals and being replaced by Dany Sabourin after letting in 2 early in the 3rd, Ty Conklin made some great saves to keep the Penguins in the game through the first 40-minutes of play.  

In the 1st period, the Thrashers scored twice,  The first goal came during even strength play on a backhand shot by Bobby Holik at 7:08.  Assists went to Chris Thorburn and Eric Boulton.  At 16:42, while Jeff Taffe sat for 4-minutes on a high stick infraction, the Thrashers scored again on a slapshot by Ilya Kovalchuk.  Steve McCarthy and Marian Hossa picked up the assists.  The Penguins outshot the Thrashers 9-7 in the first, but found themselves down 2-0.  Pittsburgh was 0-for-1 on the powerplay and gave up a goal during the double-minor penalty. 

Early in the 2nd, Jarkko Ruutu made knee-on-knee contact with Ilya Kovalchuk as he was trying to finish a check along the boards by the Thrashers’ bench.  Kovalchuk fell to the ice in pain.  Steve McCarthy objected to the hit and jumped Ruutu and began punching him repeatedly.  Ruutu never dropped his gloves or threw a punch, but somehow was called for a 5-minute fighting major.  He was also given a 5-minute major for kneeing and a game misconduct.  “I meant to finish my check,” Ruutu said. “He ducked away and I barely hit him. I didn’t change direction. I just went for a hit.  I got five minutes for fighting and I didn’t even throw a punch. I had my gloves on the whole time.”  McCarthy picked up a fighting major, a 2-minute instigator, and a 10-minute misconduct.  Kovalchuk went to the locker room, but returned to skate a single shift before leaving the game for good.  Late in the period, a goal by Nathan Smith was disallowed after an extended video review concluded that he directed the puck into the net with a slight forward movement of the skate, which was ultimately determined to be a kicking motion.  The goal would have been Smith’s first NHL tally, and could have likely altered the outcome of the game by getting the Penguins back into it before the star tof the 3rd.  But it wasn’t meant to be.  Shots were even in the 2nd at 10-apiece, with the Penguins going o-for-2 on the man advantage.  The Penguins managed to killed-off 7:20 in short-handed play in the 2nd period.

In the 3rd, the Thrashers got an early unassisted, short-handed goal by Eric Perrin at 1:32 to give the Penguins a 3-goal defecit.  They followed it up with another goal at even strength at 3:46 to put the game firmly out of reach for the tired and injury-riddled Penguins.   Mark Recchi assisted on the Jim Slater backhanded tally that beat Ty Conklin and sent him to the showers early in favor of Dany Sabourin.  At 8:42, the Penguins did manage to finally get one by Lehtonen when Ryan Whotney chipped a shot over his glove hand.  Erik Christenden and Max Talbot got the assists on the lone Penguins goal.  The Penguins outshot the Thrashers 11-10 in the final frame, and were 0-for-1 on the powerplay and 1-for-1 on the penalty kill.

• VIDEO:  Game Highlights
• PHOTOS:  In-Game Photos
• NHL OFFICIAL:  Game Rosters
• NHL OFFICIAL:  Game Summary
• NHL OFFICIAL:  Boxscore
• NHL OFFICIAL:  Play-by-Play

The Penguins return to Pittsburgh where they will take on the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday night before heading back to New Jersey for a game against the Devils on Monday night. 

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