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Never Say Die

It was do or die for the Pittsburgh Penguins in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals against the Detroit Red Wings, and the Penguins, rebounding from a 5-0 blasting in Detroit on Saturday, live to fight one more day.

After Game 5 and in the two days leading up to Game 6, the Penguins absorbed Detroit’s onslaught, as well as criticism and faltering faith by the media and fair-weather fans. They still believed. They took responsibility for their poor performance and moved on, preparing for the game that would determine their fate.

Detroit brought their “A” game in spurts and at times for nerve-wracking duration in the Pens’ defensive zone, only to be stymied by the stellar play of Marc-Andre Fleury, including toe saves, repelling point-blank shots on break-aways, and incredible grace under the pressure of a post bounce and a sliding puck that ended up neatly on the front side of Fleury, trapped between his padded legs.

Taking Fleury’s early Game 5 exit personally, every player in front of him in Game 6 gave him the kind of help he needed and then some. Forwards back-checked hard. Defensemen fought in front of the net to keep Fleury’s vision clear. Strong penalty-killing and puck clearing, including the ever-effective Murphy Dump and strong forechecking added to Fleury’s confidence. The ultimate gesture of all-for-one-and-one-for-all came in the final minute of play. A crazy scramble in front of the Penguins’ net found Fleury down and helpless to the left of his post. An ever-vigilant Rob Scuderi as legal tender sprawled in front of the net to make at least three monumental saves in blinding and furious traffic.

From the start, this game was expected to be a close one, easily one goal to separate the victor from the vanquished. The second period has proven to be a rough one for the Penguins, particularly in Game 5, but they came out determined to make it a strong period. Sure enough, with :51 left in the period, Jordan Staal found his second momentum-changing goal of the series as he wisely chose to shoot instead of pass on a 2-on-1 breakaway with a distracting Matt Cooke flanking to his left. Wings goalie Chris Osgood made the initial stop, but the deflection found the quick stick of Staal who hit his own rebound behind Osgood glove-side as Staal’s own momentum was carrying him quickly past the net.

 A two-goal cushion is always preferable, and Staal’s regular linemate, Tyler Kennedy, came through  at 5:35 in the third period. It would prove to be gold as the Wings answered almost two and a half minutes later off a Kris Draper shot. The scoring ended there and was enough to bring the series to a 3-3 tie and force a Game 7 on Friday in Detroit. The Keeper of the Cup had to put away his polishing rag and pack it in because the Cup was not making the rounds just yet.

Additional Notables

• Pens back to breaking through 30 shots on net (31). Bill Guerin and Tyler Kennedy led the team with 6 shots each; followed by Jordan Staal and Ruslan Fedotenko with 3 shots each.
• 35 hits by 13 Penguins versus Detroit’s 26, and they were bone-jarring. Chris Kunitz and Matt Cooke as the Bash Brothers led the team with 5 hits each followed closely behind by Fedotenko, Brooks Orpik, and Sergei Gonchar with 4 each.
• 11 takeaways versus Detroit’s 5.
• Early dictation of the pace of play as well as puck-possession.
• Disciplined play–keeping to only 2 penalties, both questionable calls.
• Dead even with Detroit, winning 50% of their face-offs.
• Strong play by the Staal line.
• Inspired steals by Evgeni Malkin.
• Even strength goals–something that had been of concern for the talking heads.
• Zetterberg, Franzen, Datsyuk, Holmstrom, and Hossa were not only kept scoreless, they were kept pointless.

There’s a lot of debate among coaches, players, and pundits about momentum shifts at this stage in the season, but if the momentum has not shifted even slightly in the Penguins’ favor heading into Detroit, at the very least this win has given the Red Wings pause. The Penguins show time and again that they can take the hardest of hard knocks and come back more resilient than ever. They have now gone past last year’s benchmark. This is uncharted territory “fer sure” but they’re not trepidatious. They are boldly going where they haven’t gone before, and they’re loving it.

Keeping the Faith–Who’s Giving Up?

 

Anyone disheartened by the 2 games to none deficit that the Penguins face has a pretty short memory and needs to take heart: Remember the Caps. For a little perspective, compare not only how close both teams were on the superstats sheets. Compare the stats of the Caps versus those of Detroit in their respective opening home-ice playoff series games, and what is revealed is just how many notches have been kicked up.

Games 1 & 2 Comparisons

While it is a bit tricky to look at stats textually, it is worth the effort because upon careful review, there are reasons to remain as confident as the Penguins are:

• Shots–Pens (72) vs. Caps (59) TO Pens (64) vs. Wings (56)–only 8 shots less over two games compared to the Caps series.
• Missed Shots–Pens (31) vs. Caps (23) TO Pens (18) vs. Wings (27)–Pens have brought down their missed shots total significantly (by 13) while the opponents they faced were in the mid- to high 20s.
• Hits–Pens (40) vs. Caps (51) TO Pens (72) vs. Wings (77)–While the Caps series appeared to be pretty heavy-hitting and physical, when compard to the Wings series, this is a huge statistic and speaks to the heightened physicality of this series. It also shows that the Pens are holding their own and giving as good as they are getting.
• Giveaways–Pens (16) vs. Caps (38) TO Pens (25) vs. Wings (41)–While the Pens have increased slightly in the number of giveaways, the Wings, surprisingly have given up the puck 16 more times, showing that the Pens are applying decent pressure and forcing turnovers.
• Takeaways–Pens (10) vs. Caps (24) TO Pens (17) vs. Wings (20)–Pens have improved on their takeaways in the Detroit series, up by 7 from the Caps series. Also, Detroit has managed four fewer than the Caps could against the Pens.
• Blocked Shots–Pens (37) vs. Caps (40) TO Pens (24) vs. Wings (21)–hard to tell from these numbers, but one possible reason for fewer blocked shots is that more shots may be coming beyond potential blockers where a defender is clearly beaten.
• Faceoff Percentage–Out of 121 draws, Pens (55 for 45%) vs. Caps (66 for 55%) TO out of 106 draws, Pens (43 for 41%) vs. Wings (63 for 59%)–There is room for improvement on the faceoffs; however, in Game 1 to Game 2 comparisons in each series, the Pens actually got worse in the Caps series going from 53% to 38%. In the Detroit series, the Pens improved considerably from Game 1 to Game 2, going from 29% to 53%.

What is Working and What Needs Improvement (Pros ‘n’ Cons)

1. Shots are staying above 30. More couldn’t hurt, but play needs to be smart. If Crosby and Malkin (and Bill Guerin and Jordan Staal lately) are drawing two and sometimes three guys to them like bees to honey, that means their linemates and even a pinching point man are wide open on the weak side of Osgood. Plays like the Crosby to Guerin goal in Game 1 and the Fedotenko goal off a Malkin shot strong side that rebounded wide weak side are what’s called for. In the latter case, Feds didn’t sit and watch the beauty of Malkin’s shot. He took off for Osgood’s blind side and buried a weak but juicy rebound. This is what beat Washington’s Varlamov and Carolina’s Ward. This is what was starting to have Osgood look over his left shoulder on more than a few occasions in the latter half of Game 2. Good news for the Pens and something they can capitalize on.
2. Hits are high. It does not matter how big a guy is, an older body taking those kinds of hits night after night in intense playoff finals mode is going to show the ill effects. The Pens need to keep pummeling; however, they need to get to the high side of their opponent to keep him from clearing the puck into the neutral zone for a rush the other way. Instead, they need to position checks in a way that forces Detroit to have to push the puck deeper in the ends of the rink whether in the offensive or defensive zone. The Pens started to make that adjustment in the 3rd period. They are also learning to elude hits, particularly the Pens defensemen when they go into their own end for the puck. They smartly let the Wings go in just ahead of them and then pin them to the boards and fight for the puck. Open ice hits–love ‘em when they are legal. Hossa and Zetterberg could stand to be on the receiving end of several more.
3. Powerplay–Well…hard to do much when penalties are not being called. The bright side is that the one man-advantage situation the Pens had resulted in a goal, putting them at 100% for the game, which is a 100% improvement from Game 1.
4. Penalties–Without delving too deeply into the debate over the refs swallowing their whistles as much as they have, the one thing the Pens need to do is to just play to the whistle regardless if they think the ref should have called something. Case in point: the Hossa slash on Pascal Dupuis. While appalling, Dupuis needed to play on and quickly because his delay and that of his fellow team mates gave the Wings an opportunity they capitalized on. Which brings up…
5. Goaltending–The higher the stakes, the more it comes down to goaltending, especially in games (series) where all else is fairly equal and hotly contested. Something has got to give, and usually it is the goalie–who blinks first. Like Varlamov, Osgood is winning the battle between the pipes against his counterpart at the other end, Marc-Andre Fleury. However, like Varlamov (and Ward), he is human, and he can be shaken, rattled, and rolled–and beaten. He is starting to second-guess his saves. In Game 1, he was standing up confidently, absorbing shots, and deflecting any rebounds to the corner and out of danger. In Game 2, as the game progressed, he was letting more rebounds get away from him, and he was starting to flop and flail. This is good. Fleury needs to get back up to the low 90s in save percentage. The good news is that his record for consecutively poor games usually does not venture above two, and when he rallies back, he does so with a vengeance. That would be Game 3.

To think this Stanley Cup Final would be over in the Penguins’ favor in five games might be a little naive. However, in six is not out of the realm of possibility, but given how this series is so similar to the Caps series, one should not be surprised that this will go the full seven games. If that’s the case, which team does that favor? The longer the series, the more it plays to the Penguins.

Stanley Cup Finals Preview – Penguins vs Red Wings

This is it!  The 2008 Stanley Cup Finals will commence Saturday night at Joe Louis Arena as the Eastern Conference Champion Pittsburgh Penguins take on the Western Conference Champion Detroit Red Wings.  Finishing #1 in the league during the regular season with 115 points, Detroit has the home ice advantage over the #4 Penguins, who finished with 102-points.  The Penguins advanced to the Cup Finals by sweeping the #13 Ottawa Senators, beating the #9 New York Rangers in 5-games, and dispatching the #11 Philadelphia Flyers in 5-games.  The Red Wings advanced by beating the #17 Nashville Predators in 6-games, sweeping the #10 Colorado Avalanche, and finishing off the #8 Dallas Stars in 6-games.  The Cup Finals promise to be a highly-skilled battle of youth versus experience between two-teams that haven’t met since the pre-season, and have never met in the post-season.  So how do these two teams match up?  Let’s take a look.

The Pittsburgh Penguins have been virtually unstoppable in the playoffs having lost just 2-of-14 games.  The Penguins continue to excel on the play of their special teams, their defense and stellar netminding.  Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has been phenomenal in net in the playoffs, leading the league with a 0.938 save percentage, a 0.857 win percentage, and 3 shutouts.  He is also 2nd in goals against average at 1.70 behind Detroit’s Chris Osgood (1.60).  The Penguins lead the league in post-season goals per game at 3.64, as well as goals-against per game at just 1.86, and own the best power play of all remaining teams at 24.6%, second only to Calgary who was sent golfing in round 1.  The Penguins’ penalty kill has been highly effective at 87.3%, and is tied with Detroit.  The Penguins have found balanced scoring across all 4-lines with all 13 forwards recording at least one goal, and all 19 players scoring at least one point in 14 playoff games.  The Penguins’ star players have lived up to their expectations as Sidney Crosby (4G, 17A) leads the league with 21-points, and Evgeni Malkin (9G, 10A) and Marian Hossa (9G, 10A) are not far behind with 19-points each.  Of late, JOrdan Staal has come alive and has 7-points (6G, 1A) in 14-games.  The only significant weakness that the Penguins have exhibited in the playoffs has been their performance in the face-off circle, where they trail the league at 46.7%.  It hasn’t burned them yet, as they have won 12 of their 14 games and have outscored their opponents convincingly 51-26.  They will now be facing off against a more evenly matched Detroit team, who is the league’s leader in the face-off circle at 55.7%.

The Detroit Red Wings dominated the league throughout the regular season and have carried that tradition forward into the post-season, dispatching their opponents by winning 12-of-16 games and outscoring them 55-31.  The Red Wings have gotten balanced contributions from their lineup with 8-players scoring 10-points or more in the post-season, including 3 defensemen.  Henrik Zetterburg (11G, 10A) is tied for the league lead with Sidney Crosby at 21-points and Pavel Datsyuk (9G, 10A) has also been hockey gold scoring 19-points.  Both players are Selke Trophy finalists for this season’s top NHL defensive forward.  In the post-season, Zetterberg is a +15 and Datyuk is a +12.  Johan Franzen who has missed 5-games with concussion-symptoms still leads the league with 12-goals and will be a force to be reckoned with upon his return.  He has been given the green light to return to practice, but is unlikely for game 1.  The Red Wings also have 5-time Norris Tropy winner and 2008 finalist Niklas Lidstrom, who is paired with Brian Rafalski for a potent defensive combination.  The Red Wings goaltending job was handed over to Chris Osgood after a 2-2 start by Dominik Hasek.  Osgood leads the league with 1.60 goals against average over 12 starts, has a tremendous 10-2 record, and has been a major component of the Red Wings’ post-season success.   

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This series will be a battle of size and youth against experience.  The average age of the Penguins is 4.4 years younger than the Detroit Red Wings.  But along with the durability of youth comes inexperience.  The Penguins roster contains just 3-Stanley Cup winners to include Gary Roberts (Calgary 88-89), Darryl Sydor (Dallas 98-99 and Tampa Bay 03-04) and Petr Sykora (New Jersey 99-00).  The Red Wings have 10 players who have hoisted the Cup, some of them multiple times, to include Chris Chelios (2x), Pavel Datsyuk, Kris Draper (3x), Dominik Hasek, Tomas Holmstrom (3x), Niklas Lidstrom (3x), Kirk Maltby (3x), Darren McCarty (3x), Chris Osgood (2x) and Brian Rafalski (2x).  One has to wonder which stokes the fire of desire more….knowing the exhiliration of having hoisted the Cup before, or the desire to achieve one’s dream for the first time?  In addition to youth and experience, size may well become a factor.  On average, the Penguins outweigh the Red Wings by 13lbs and are nearly 1 3/4″ taller.  Height and weight could be an advantage for the Penguins if the game gets physical.  It could also potentially be a liability in terms of speed and agility, however, I think the Penguins youth would likely trump any limitations there.  Both teams are replete with skilled players, however, the Penguins have the edge in potential with 13 former 1st round draft picks in the lineup.  The Red Wings, with no shortage of proven talent, are playing with 3 former first round picks.   

The keys to this series is likely to be all about defensive play and goaltending.  If Marc-Andre Fleury can continue to play with confidence of steel, the Red Wings could get frustrated and start to feel snake bit.  He will need the help of the Penguins defense, though, to keep the traffic in front of him down to a minimum.  They will need to prevent mad scrambles in front of the net, the only scenario where Fleury has shown any real signs of vulnerability in the post-season.  The Penguins offense will also have to be masters of the backcheck to try and create turnovers and odd man chances.  It seems unlikely that the Red Wings will be caught in many defensive lapses, however.  On the other end of the ice, the Penguins will have to find a way to penetrate the Red Wings’ stingey defense and then solve a red hot Chris Osgood.  The Penguins certainly have the firepower, skill and depth in Malkin, Crosby, Sykora, Malone and Hossa, but they have have to fight for every inch of ice against this defensively superior Red Wings team.  The Penguins will need Jordan Staal to continue his offensive surge of late to add pressure to the Detroit defense, and will also need strong contributions from the energy line with Laraque and Ruutu.  While the penalty kills are equally effective for both teams, the Penguins have a noticeable advantage on the powerplay (24.6% vs 21%).  The Penguins may have to rely on their special teams to help crack the defensive advantage of the Red Wings.  If the Penguins can use their speed and size to their advantage, they may be able to pull the Red Wings into penalty trouble and make them pay, although I will note that it would be uncharacteristic of the Red Wings to do so. 

In summary, I believe that the Penguins will face their toughest challenge of the year in the Detroit Red Wings.  They will need to find a way to put youth and size to their advantage by playing a physical game against the Red Wings to try and wear the “old guys” down and create opportunities.  They will need to find ways to break through the stifling defense of the Detroit Red Wings, put a lot of pressure on Chris Osgood, and hopefully put a dent in his confidence.  The Penguins underrated defense will have to continue to perform like they did in game 5 against the Flyers and find ways to stop Zetterberg and Datsyuk from getting quality opportunities on net. 

This series could go either way, and I fully expect it to go the distance and be an exciting series.  I believe that the skill levels and depth are fairly even, making it hard to see a clear advantage for either team.  As such, I don’t see either team scoring a blowout in any game.  However, with bias, I am going to choose youth and size as the discriminator and pick the Penguins to win the Stanley Cup in 7 hard fought games.

Image details: Philadelphia Flyers v Pittsburgh Penguins – Game Five served by picapp.com

Let’s Go Pens!

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