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Stanley Cup Finals Preview – Penguins vs Red Wings

This is it!  The 2008 Stanley Cup Finals will commence Saturday night at Joe Louis Arena as the Eastern Conference Champion Pittsburgh Penguins take on the Western Conference Champion Detroit Red Wings.  Finishing #1 in the league during the regular season with 115 points, Detroit has the home ice advantage over the #4 Penguins, who finished with 102-points.  The Penguins advanced to the Cup Finals by sweeping the #13 Ottawa Senators, beating the #9 New York Rangers in 5-games, and dispatching the #11 Philadelphia Flyers in 5-games.  The Red Wings advanced by beating the #17 Nashville Predators in 6-games, sweeping the #10 Colorado Avalanche, and finishing off the #8 Dallas Stars in 6-games.  The Cup Finals promise to be a highly-skilled battle of youth versus experience between two-teams that haven’t met since the pre-season, and have never met in the post-season.  So how do these two teams match up?  Let’s take a look.

The Pittsburgh Penguins have been virtually unstoppable in the playoffs having lost just 2-of-14 games.  The Penguins continue to excel on the play of their special teams, their defense and stellar netminding.  Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has been phenomenal in net in the playoffs, leading the league with a 0.938 save percentage, a 0.857 win percentage, and 3 shutouts.  He is also 2nd in goals against average at 1.70 behind Detroit’s Chris Osgood (1.60).  The Penguins lead the league in post-season goals per game at 3.64, as well as goals-against per game at just 1.86, and own the best power play of all remaining teams at 24.6%, second only to Calgary who was sent golfing in round 1.  The Penguins’ penalty kill has been highly effective at 87.3%, and is tied with Detroit.  The Penguins have found balanced scoring across all 4-lines with all 13 forwards recording at least one goal, and all 19 players scoring at least one point in 14 playoff games.  The Penguins’ star players have lived up to their expectations as Sidney Crosby (4G, 17A) leads the league with 21-points, and Evgeni Malkin (9G, 10A) and Marian Hossa (9G, 10A) are not far behind with 19-points each.  Of late, JOrdan Staal has come alive and has 7-points (6G, 1A) in 14-games.  The only significant weakness that the Penguins have exhibited in the playoffs has been their performance in the face-off circle, where they trail the league at 46.7%.  It hasn’t burned them yet, as they have won 12 of their 14 games and have outscored their opponents convincingly 51-26.  They will now be facing off against a more evenly matched Detroit team, who is the league’s leader in the face-off circle at 55.7%.

The Detroit Red Wings dominated the league throughout the regular season and have carried that tradition forward into the post-season, dispatching their opponents by winning 12-of-16 games and outscoring them 55-31.  The Red Wings have gotten balanced contributions from their lineup with 8-players scoring 10-points or more in the post-season, including 3 defensemen.  Henrik Zetterburg (11G, 10A) is tied for the league lead with Sidney Crosby at 21-points and Pavel Datsyuk (9G, 10A) has also been hockey gold scoring 19-points.  Both players are Selke Trophy finalists for this season’s top NHL defensive forward.  In the post-season, Zetterberg is a +15 and Datyuk is a +12.  Johan Franzen who has missed 5-games with concussion-symptoms still leads the league with 12-goals and will be a force to be reckoned with upon his return.  He has been given the green light to return to practice, but is unlikely for game 1.  The Red Wings also have 5-time Norris Tropy winner and 2008 finalist Niklas Lidstrom, who is paired with Brian Rafalski for a potent defensive combination.  The Red Wings goaltending job was handed over to Chris Osgood after a 2-2 start by Dominik Hasek.  Osgood leads the league with 1.60 goals against average over 12 starts, has a tremendous 10-2 record, and has been a major component of the Red Wings’ post-season success.   

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This series will be a battle of size and youth against experience.  The average age of the Penguins is 4.4 years younger than the Detroit Red Wings.  But along with the durability of youth comes inexperience.  The Penguins roster contains just 3-Stanley Cup winners to include Gary Roberts (Calgary 88-89), Darryl Sydor (Dallas 98-99 and Tampa Bay 03-04) and Petr Sykora (New Jersey 99-00).  The Red Wings have 10 players who have hoisted the Cup, some of them multiple times, to include Chris Chelios (2x), Pavel Datsyuk, Kris Draper (3x), Dominik Hasek, Tomas Holmstrom (3x), Niklas Lidstrom (3x), Kirk Maltby (3x), Darren McCarty (3x), Chris Osgood (2x) and Brian Rafalski (2x).  One has to wonder which stokes the fire of desire more….knowing the exhiliration of having hoisted the Cup before, or the desire to achieve one’s dream for the first time?  In addition to youth and experience, size may well become a factor.  On average, the Penguins outweigh the Red Wings by 13lbs and are nearly 1 3/4″ taller.  Height and weight could be an advantage for the Penguins if the game gets physical.  It could also potentially be a liability in terms of speed and agility, however, I think the Penguins youth would likely trump any limitations there.  Both teams are replete with skilled players, however, the Penguins have the edge in potential with 13 former 1st round draft picks in the lineup.  The Red Wings, with no shortage of proven talent, are playing with 3 former first round picks.   

The keys to this series is likely to be all about defensive play and goaltending.  If Marc-Andre Fleury can continue to play with confidence of steel, the Red Wings could get frustrated and start to feel snake bit.  He will need the help of the Penguins defense, though, to keep the traffic in front of him down to a minimum.  They will need to prevent mad scrambles in front of the net, the only scenario where Fleury has shown any real signs of vulnerability in the post-season.  The Penguins offense will also have to be masters of the backcheck to try and create turnovers and odd man chances.  It seems unlikely that the Red Wings will be caught in many defensive lapses, however.  On the other end of the ice, the Penguins will have to find a way to penetrate the Red Wings’ stingey defense and then solve a red hot Chris Osgood.  The Penguins certainly have the firepower, skill and depth in Malkin, Crosby, Sykora, Malone and Hossa, but they have have to fight for every inch of ice against this defensively superior Red Wings team.  The Penguins will need Jordan Staal to continue his offensive surge of late to add pressure to the Detroit defense, and will also need strong contributions from the energy line with Laraque and Ruutu.  While the penalty kills are equally effective for both teams, the Penguins have a noticeable advantage on the powerplay (24.6% vs 21%).  The Penguins may have to rely on their special teams to help crack the defensive advantage of the Red Wings.  If the Penguins can use their speed and size to their advantage, they may be able to pull the Red Wings into penalty trouble and make them pay, although I will note that it would be uncharacteristic of the Red Wings to do so. 

In summary, I believe that the Penguins will face their toughest challenge of the year in the Detroit Red Wings.  They will need to find a way to put youth and size to their advantage by playing a physical game against the Red Wings to try and wear the “old guys” down and create opportunities.  They will need to find ways to break through the stifling defense of the Detroit Red Wings, put a lot of pressure on Chris Osgood, and hopefully put a dent in his confidence.  The Penguins underrated defense will have to continue to perform like they did in game 5 against the Flyers and find ways to stop Zetterberg and Datsyuk from getting quality opportunities on net. 

This series could go either way, and I fully expect it to go the distance and be an exciting series.  I believe that the skill levels and depth are fairly even, making it hard to see a clear advantage for either team.  As such, I don’t see either team scoring a blowout in any game.  However, with bias, I am going to choose youth and size as the discriminator and pick the Penguins to win the Stanley Cup in 7 hard fought games.

Image details: Philadelphia Flyers v Pittsburgh Penguins – Game Five served by picapp.com

Let’s Go Pens!

Penguins Complete Sweep, Advance to Round 2

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Ottawa Senators 3-1 on Wednesday night to complete a 4-game series sweep and became the first team to advance to round two of the 2008 Stanley Cup Playoffs.  For the Penguins it was sweet redemption for last year’s early exit in in the first round of the playoffs courtesy of these same Ottawa Senators.  This season, a more experienced, complete and confident Penguins team took full advantage of a wounded and struggling Ottawa as they outshot them 161-112 and outscored them 16-5 in 4-games.  The victory completed the first playoff series sweep for the Pittsburgh Penguins in 16-years, and its first playoff series win since 2001.  The last sweep came in 1992 as the Penguins swept Boston and then Chicago enroute to its second consecutive Stanley Cup victory.

There was no scoring in the 1st period despite the Penguins 14-5 domination in shots.  The Penguins were afforded one power play opportunity in the period, but failed to convert.  Marian Hossa notched 7 of the Penguins’ shots on goal for the period. 

In the 2nd period, the Penguins got on the board early as they converted on a power play opportunity at 1:40.  Evgeni Malkin collected his own rebound after Martin Gerber stopped his shot on a Sidney Crosby cross-crease pass and tapped the puck in on his second attempt.  It was Malkin’s 2nd goal of the series and 7th point.  Sergei Gonchar and Sidney Crosby picked up the assists.  Then at 10:31, Cory Stillman beat Marc-Andre Fleury to tie it up.  Wayne Redden and Anton Volchenkov were credited with the assists.  At 15:28, the Penguins regained the lead on an even strength goal by Jarkko Ruutu, his first of the playoffs.  Tyler Kennedy caught Ruutu with an up ice pass that almost gave him a clean breakaway.  With Senators’ defenseman Brian Lee tying him up as he drove to the net, Ruutu quickly spun around to the backhand and slipped the puck through Gerber’s five-hole to make it 2-1.  Kennedy had the only assist on the play.  Late in the period, Antoine Vermette had a tying goal disallowed as the video reply clearly showed that he put the puck into the net off his skate with a distinct kicking motion.  The Penguins again outshot the Senators 16-8 and went 1-for-3 on the power play.  The Penguins killed off a lone hooking penalty to Ryan Malone. 

In the 3rd period, the Senators pressed to stay alive but came up short.  The Penguins offensive effort let up as the Senators outshot them 9-4, but it wasn’t enough to make the difference in the game.  At 19:52 with Gerber pulled from the net for the extra attacker, Sidney Crosby took advantage of a turnover and shot the puck into the empty net from mid-ice to seal the game and the series.

• VIDEO:  Video Highlights
• PHOTOS:  In-Game Photos
• NHL OFFICIAL:  Game Rosters
• NHL OFFICIAL:  Game Summary
• NHL OFFICIAL:  Boxscore
• NHL OFFICIAL:  Play-by-Play

The Penguins’ stars more than lived up to expectations in this 4-game series.  Leading the pack was Captain Sidney Crosby who put up 8-points (2G, 6A).  On his heels was Evgeni Malkin with 7-points (2G, 5A).  Ryan Malone (2G, 3A) and Marian Hossa (1G, 4A) each put up 5-points, Petr Sykora (3G) added 3-points, and Sergei Gonchar (1G, 1A) had 2-points.  Marc-Andre Fleury let in just 5-goals on 112-shots for an incredible 0.955 save percentage and 1.26 goals against average.  Just as importantly, the Penguins found contributions from the lower lines as well with Jarkko Ruutu (1G, 1A), Max Talbot (1G, 1A), Gary Roberts (2G), and Jordan Staal (1G) all contributing. 

The Penguins will now get a lengthy rest while the other first round series play out.  The Penguins will face off against one of Boston, New Jersey or the New York Rangers next, depending upon how the series’ play out.  If Boston can overcome their 3-1 defecit and beat Montreal, the Penguins would meet them in the 2nd round.  Otherwise, the Penguins will play the winner of the New Jersey Devils/New York Rangers series.  Regardless of who they meet, the Penguins will maintain the home ice advantage.  The series will begin sometime next week.

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