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Penguins December Preview

After a great start to the season, the Pittsburgh Penguins enter the month of December with a 14-6-3 record having garnered 31 of 46 possible points so far this season (67%).  This puts them on pace for a 110-point season.  The Penguins hold 4th place in the Eastern Conference where they trail the streaking New York Rangers and Boston Bruins by 5-points for the top spot in the East.  With 1-game in hand against the Bruins and 3-games in hand against the Rangers, the Penguins are in a good position given their slow starts of the past few seasons.  It is particularly impressive given that the team exchanged a number of role players in the off-season, has had its 2-top defensemen on extended injured reserve, and has been playing without its top goaltender for the past couple of weeks.  Add to that the fact that Sidney Crosby is just now starting to roll, the Penguins 3rd line has found some awesome chemistry, and Ryan Whitney will be rejoining the team soon, and there is a lot to look forward to.  So what lies ahead in December?

Despite the challenges of starting the season in Europe, the Penguins have had a relatively easy game schedule for the first two months of this season.  That is about to change.  The Penguins will play 14-games in 25-days in December, including four back-to-back games (they played back-to-back games just twice in the first two months).  Speaking about the upcoming back-to-back games, Evgeni Malkin said, “It’s OK, I like it. I like to play games. It’s a little different. The second game is more difficult. It’s more physical.”  Sidney Crosby added his perspective, “You get used to it by going through it.  It’s something that you have to get used to.  Mentally, you deal with.  The more often you go through it, the more comfortable you get with it.  We’ll get lots of practice with it over the next couple of months.”

The Penguins will spend the majority of December on the road, playing 8-games in other rinks and just 6 at home in the Mellon Arena.  The only consecutive home games this month are the last two on the 27th and 30th.  Just 5 games will be played against divisional foes.  The Penguins will face 12-different teams in 14-games to include the Rangers, Hurricanes, Senators, Sabres (2x), Devils (2x), Islanders, Flyers, Thrashers, Maple Leafs, Lightning, Canadiens and Bruins!  The only Eastern Conference teams that they will not face-off against in December are the Florida Panthers and the Washington Capitals.  So, it is sure to be a busy and diverse month ahead!  The following is the full lineup, with the home games italicized:

• 3 Dec – at New York Rangers
• 4 Dec – at Carolina Hurricanes
• 6 Dec – at Ottawa Senators
• 8 Dec – Buffalo Sabres
• 10 Dec – at New Jersey Devils
• 11 Dec – New York Islanders
• 13 Dec – at Philadelphia Flyers
• 18 Dec – at Atlanta Thrashers
• 20 Dec – Toronto Maple Leafs
• 22 Dec – at Buffalo Sabres
• 23 Dec – Tampa Bay Lightning
• 26 Dec – at New Jersey Devils
• 28 Dec – Montreal Canadiens
• 30 Dec – Boston Bruins

The Penguins will face off 7-times against teams currently in the bottom half of the Conference standings and 7-times against teams currently in the top half.  The first game of the month (vs the Rangers) and the last game of the month (vs the Bruins) are the only games against teams currently ahead of the Penguins in the standings.  The Penguins hope to get Ryan Whitney back into the lineup in December, as well as Marc-Andre Fleury and Philippe Bouchard.  Keeping with his rotational leadership plan, Coach Michel Therrien today announced that Jordan Staal and Matt Cooke will wear the “A” as Alternate Captains for the month of December.  This is good recognition for their outstanding play in November. 

In summary, the Penguins face a difficult schedule in the month of December.  This will be a good test for the team, and the road time will provide additional opportunities for the team to gel.  If the Penguins offense remains healthy, I project that they could pick up as many as 22 of 28 available points in December.  I will go out on a limb and project a 10-2-2 record in December.

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Penguins March Preview

In my February Preview, I projected that the Penguins fortunes would be mixed and that they would stay just slightly above 0.500 for the month.  I projected a February record of 7-6-1 with the Penguins picking up of 15-of-28 available points (0.536).  Boy was I wrong!  They completed February with an impressive 8-3-3 record and recorded 19-of-28 possible points (0.679), putting them just 1-point out of the Eastern Conference and Atlantic Division lead.  The February surge was largely due to the play of Evgeni Malkin and Ty Conklin, although Petr Sykora, Ryan Malone and Jordan Staal all stepped up their games as well.  Although Malkin only scored points in 1 of his last 4 games, he scored 26-points (9G, 17A) in the 14-games during the month of February to take over the NHL scoring lead.  Ty Conklin went 6-2-3 in February and his 0.930 save percentage now leads the league.  It is now time to look forward to see what the month of March has in store for the Penguins as they head into the final push for the playoffs. 

So what lies ahead for the Penguins in March?  The Penguins will play 15-games for a possible 30-points.  The Penguins will play 7 of the games at home, while 8 will come on the road.  Of the 15-games, the Penguins play 8-games against Atlantic Division rivals in March, including the last 6-games of the month.  They will face the Devils twice (1-road, 1-home), the Rangers three times (2-road, 1-home), the Islanders twice (1-road, 1-home) and the Flyers once (home).  The other 7-games are all against Eastern Conference teams, to include road games against the Senators, Lightning, Panthers and Capitals, and home games against the Thrashers, Sabres and Lightning.  They open the month with back-to-back games against the Senators and Thrashers, have back-to-back games against the Islanders and Devils late in the month, and close the month with back-to-back, home-and-home games against the Rangers.  Of all the teams they will face, only the Devils (80-points) have more points than the Penguins (79-points) at the outset of March. 

As far as the schedule, here is the March layout for the Penguins (36-22-7), 79-points:

• 1 Mar:  @ Ottawa Senators (36-23-6) - 78 points 
• 2 Mar:  Atlanta Thrashers (29-31-5) – 63-points
• 4 Mar:  @ Tampa Bay Lightning (25-31-7) – 57 points 
• 6 Mar:  @ Florida Panthers (28-30-8) – 64 points
• 9 Mar:  @ Washington Capitals (30-27-8) – 68 points
• 12 Mar:  Buffao Sabres (31-24-9) - 71 points
• 16 Mar:  Philadelphia Flyers (32-25-7) - 71 points
• 18 Mar:  @ New York Rangers (33-24-8) - 74 points
• 20 Mar:  Tampa Bay Lightning (25-31-7) – 57 points
• 22 Mar:  New Jersey Devils (37-22-6) - 80 points
• 24 Mar:  @ New York Islanders (31-27-7) – 69 points
• 25 Mar:  @ New Jersey Devils (37-22-6) – 80 points
• 27 Mar:  New York Islanders (31-27-7) – 69 points
• 30 Mar:  New York Rangers (33-24-8) – 74 points
• 31 Mar:  @ New York Rangers (33-24-8) – 74 points

March starts with a flurry with the first 4-games coming in just 6-days.  Also, 4 of the first 5 games come on the road.  The schedule gets rough at the end of March with 5-games coming in just 8-nights (2 at home and 3 on the road).  Last season, the Penguins had a phenomenal run by going 9-3-1 in February, 12-3-2 in March, and 2-1-0 in April.  By comparison, the Penguins are just slightly ahead of last season’s performance through February with 79-points (36-22-7) in 65-games this season (0.608) vs 75-points (33-20-9) in 62-games last season (0.605). 

With Marc-Andre Fleury back in the lineup and Sidney Crosby and Marian Hossa both likely to return soon, the Penguins will look to benefit from the infusion of fresh league talent.  The big intangible for early March will be what the changeup in lines will ultimately do to team chemistry and timing.  With a couple of new players coming into the lineup and learning a new system and new linemates, there is significant potential for some rough edges, especially with opponents playing hard for a playoff spot.  To be successful in March, the Penguins will need to find their chemistry and timing quickly, and significantly improve their defensive play over what they have demonstrated in the last several games. 

I think that the Penguins will continue their winning ways in March.  I am projecting a March record of 9-3-3 with the Penguins picking up of 21 of the 30 available points and hitting 100-points by month’s end.  The Penguins will benefit from strong offensive output by Malone, Sykora, Malkin, Crosby, and Hossa, and continued good play in net by Conklin and Fleury.  The biggest liability will be in the Penguins defense, which will continue to allow far too many shots on net.  The big unknown is whether the Penguins will fare well enough to stake sole claim to the Atlantic Division or the Eastern Conference by month’s end.  Only time will tell!

Lets Go Pens!

Penguins February Preview and Predictions

In my January Preview, I predicted that the Penguins would have a very strong January, with the potential to go 8-3-2 and pick up 18 of 26 available points on the month.  In fact, the Penguins finished the month going 8-3-2 and picked up 18-points.  This was the second consecutive monthly preview in which our projection nailed the outcome exactly.  It is now time to look forward to see what the month of February has in store for the Penguins. 

What I didn’t predict for January was that the Penguins injury woes would mount and that they would lose several more key players.  Midway through the month, the number of Penguins players on the injured reserve list grew from 3 to 6 players, as Sidney Crosby (ankle), Tyler Kennedy (mono) and Adam Hall (groin) all were added to the list.  While not on the IR list, the Penguins lost the services of Colby Armstrong (Hip/Flu) for several games.  Yet, despite the continued adversity, the Penguins still found a way to win 62% of the games in January and picked up 69% of the available points to arrive within a point of both the Atlantic Division lead and 2nd place in the Eastern Conference.  Unfortunately, the IR list will continue to be a challenge for the Penguins in the coming month. 

So what lies ahead for the Penguins in February?  The Penguins will play 14-games for a possible 28-points.  Unlike January, the majority of the games (8) will be played at home, with 6 being played on the road.  Of the 14-games, the Penguins play just 4-games against Atlantic Division rivals in February when they face off against the Devils on the road, the Flyers at home and 2-games against the Islanders (1 at home, and 1 away).  They will play the Carolina Hurricanes and Boston Bruins twice each during the month (1 at home, 1 away).  Five games will be played against teams that are currently above them in the Eastern Conference Standings (Senators, Flyers, Hurricanes (x2), and the Canadiens) and 7 will be played against teams that are currently below them (Islanders (x2), Bruins (x2), Sabres, Panthers, Devils).  The other 2-games will be played against the Western Conference when they host the West’s #2 San Jose Sharks and the #15 Los Angeles Kings. 

As far as the schedule, here is the February layout for the Penguins (28-19-4), 60-points:

2 Feb:  Carolina Hurricanes (25-24-4) – 54 points 
4 Feb:  @ New Jersey Devils (28-19-3) – 59-points
7 Feb:  New York Islanders (24-21-6) – 54 points 
9 Feb:  Los Angeles Kings (20-29-3) – 43 points
10 Feb:  Philadelphia Flyers (28-16-5) – 61 points
13 Feb:  Boston Bruins (26-19-5) – 57 points
14 Feb:  @ Carolina Hurricanes (25-24-4) – 54 points
17 Feb:  @ Buffalo Sabres (23-21-6) – 52 points
19 Feb:  Florida Panthers (22-25-5) – 49 points
21 Feb:  @ Montreal Canadiens (27-15-8) – 62 points
23 Feb:  Ottawa Senators (32-15-4) – 68 points
24 Feb:  San Jose Sharks (28-16-7) – 63 points
26 Feb:  @ New York Islanders (24-21-6) – 54 points
28 Feb:  @ Boston Bruins (26-19-5) – 57 points

February starts with 5 of the first 6 games at home.  The schedule gets rough towards the end of February with 4-games coming in 6-nights (2 at home and 2 on the road). 

Last season, after coming into their own in January by going 8-2-2, the Penguins kept rolling by going 9-3-1 in February, 12-3-2 in March, and 2-1-0 in April.  By comparison, the Penguins are ahead of last season’s performance through January with 60-points (28-19-4) in 51-games this season vs 56-points (24-17-8) in 49-games last season.  I think it is unlikely that the Penguins will be able to maintain the similar level of success in February this season, given the key injuries to the their line-up.  To be successful, the Penguins will need to find offense from the remaining lineup and contributions from their Wilkes-Barre/Scranton call-ups.  They may also need to find a quality offensive player via trade to keep the Penguins in the playoff hunt in the extremely tight Eastern Conference until they can get Sidney Crosby and Gary Roberts back in the lineup.   

I think that the Penguins fortunes in February will be mixed, but they will stay slightly above 0.500.  I am projecting a February record of 7-6-1 with the Penguins picking up of 15 of the 28 available points.  This will require consistent offensive output from Malone, Gonchar, Sykora, Malkin, and Staal, and continued good play in net by Conklin.  If the Penguins can find ways to win without some of their top players in the lineup, it should bode well come playoff time (assuming the top players can find their way back onto the ice by mid-March).   

Lets Go Pens!

Penguins January 08 Preview

I noted in my December Preview that if the Penguins could successfully build confidence off from the Thanksgiving Day win over the Ottawa Senators, that they could hit their stride and have the potential of picking up 18 of 28 possible points in December.  With their win over Buffalo on Saturday night, the Pittsburgh Penguins finished December with a 9-5-0 record, picking up….18 points.  This was a huge turnaround for a team that went 4-7-1 in November and picked up just 9 of 24 possible points. 

Of course, it wasn’t all roses for the Penguins as they lost several key players to extended injuries in December.  First, they lost starting goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury for 6-8 weeks to a high-ankle sprain on December 6th.  Then, a couple of days later, fiesty forward Maxime Talbot got put back on the injured list for a few weeks for the same high-ankle sprain and has not yet returned.  The Penguins then lost 1st line forward Ryan Malone for 5-games to a leg infection.  Malone returned to the lineup against Buffalo on Saturday night.  On December 23rd the Penguins lost one of their best defensemen for the remainder of the season when Marc Eaton left the game against Boston with a torn ACL.  Lastly, the team lost veteran leader Gary Roberts for a lengthy, yet undetermined period of time after breaking his fibula in the 2-0 win over the Buffalo Sabres on December 29th.  Yet, despite the adversity, the team came away with a 64% winning percentage in December.  Perhaps the biggest surprise boost has come from 3rd string goaltender Ty Conklin who has won 4-straight starts, including a shutout against the Sabres.  His ability to handle the puck has really helped the team defensively. 

So what lies ahead for the Penguins in January?  The Penguins will play 13-games for a possible 26-points.  A majority of the games (8) will be played on the road, with just 5 being played on home ice.  Of the 13-games, the Penguins play just 3-games against Division rivals in January when they face off against the Rangers at home, and then the Flyers and Devils on the road.  They will play the Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning and Atlanta Thrashers twice each, all teams that are currently below them in the standings.  In fact, of the 13-games in January, only 2 are against teams that are currently above them in the Eastern Conference standings (Canadiens and Devils), although it is a very tight race in  the East. 

As far as the road ahead in January, here is the layout for the Penguins (20-16-2), and my best case projections:

• 1 Jan:  @ Buffalo Sabres (19-16-2) – projected Win
• 3 Jan:  Toronto Maple Leafs (15-16-8) – projected Win
• 5 Jan:  Florida Panthers (18-17-3) – projected Win
• 8 Jan:  @ Florida Panthers  (18-17-3) – projected OTL
• 10 Jan:  @ Tampa Bay Lightning (15-21-3) – projected Win
• 12 Jan:  @ at Atlanta Thrashers (19-19-1) – projected Win
• 14 Jan:  New York Rangers (19-15-4) – projected Loss
• 18 Jan:  Tampa Bay Lightning (15-21-3) – projected Win
• 19 Jan:  @ Montreal Canadiens (19-13-6) – projected Loss
• 21 Jan:  Washington Capitals (15-19-5) – projected Win
• 24 Jan:  @ Philadelphia Flyers (18-4-4) – projected OTL
• 29 Jan:  @ New Jersey Devils (21-14-3) – projected Loss
• 30 Jan:  @ Atlanta Thrashers (19-19-1) – projected Win

January starts with 4 of the first 6 games on the road, including the momentous Winter Classic game in Buffalo on New Year’s Day.  Aside from the fact that the majority of the games come on the road, the schedule is more forgiving than it was in December with only 2-games falling back-to-back on subsequent nights (January 29-30 against the Devils and Thrashers, respectively).   

Last season, the Penguins came into their own in January going 8-2-2, and then kept rolling by going 9-3-1 in February, 12-3-2 in March, and 2-1-0 in April.  I think it is unlikely that the Penguins will be able to maintain the similar level of success in the latter half of this season, given more parity in the league and the increase that the Penguins have seen in injuries.  However, I hope to be proven wrong.  There is certainly an ample amount of talent on the team if they can play to their full potential. 

I think that the Penguins will have a very strong January, with the potential to go 8-3-2 and pick up 18 of 26 available points on the month.  This will require continued offensive output outside of Gonchar, Sykora, Crosby and Malkin, and continued good play in net by Conklin and Sabourin.  A confident Penguins team will be a dangerous team, as was evidenced in the second half of last year.  Let’s hope that the Penguins can build on the confidence they have developed in December. 

Lets Go Pens!

Penguins December Preview

The Pittsburgh Penguins play one more game in November before hitting a 14-game stretch in December, with 8 of the first 10 coming on the road.  They will likely be glad to put the tough month of November behind them after going 4-7-1 for 9 of 24 possible points, with one game remaining to play.  By comparison, the Penguins escaped November 2006 with a 5-5-4 record for 14 of 28 possible points last season.  So, what is in store for the Penguins as they head into December?

First, it is undeniable that the last two victories may have helped turn the corner on a less than acceptable season start.  Beating Ottawa, the league’s #1 team by a score to 6-5 in a double come from behind shootout on their own turf was certainly a shot-in-the-arm for the young, talented Penguins.  The subsequent 5-0 thrashing of Atlanta was also a momentum builder with a Fleury shutout and goals coming from snake-bitten supporting cast members Jordan Staal and Colby Armstrong.  The real test will be to see how they fare against the Dallas Stars on Friday night after a 5-day layoff.  Will they be able to maintain the momentum and synergy that developed in the last 2-games, or will they come out flat and plant the seed of doubt back in the minds? 

As far as the road ahead in December, here is the layout:

• 1 Dec:  @ Toronto Maple Leafs (8-11-5)
• 3 Dec:  Phoenix Coyotes (11-10-0)
• 5 Dec:  @ Edmonton Oilers (10-13-1)
• 6 Dec:  @ Calgary Flames (10-11-3)
• 8 Dec:  @ Vancouver Canucks (12-9-2)
• 11 Dec:  @ at Philadelphia Flyers (13-8-2)
• 13 Dec:  Ottawa Senators (16-5-1)
• 15 Dec:  @ New York Islanders (12-8-3)
• 18 Dec:  @ New York Rangers (13-9-2)
• 20 Dec:  @  Boston Bruins (12-8-2)
• 21 Dec:  New York Islanders (12-8-3)
• 23 Dec:  Boston Bruins (12-8-2)
• 27 Dec:  Washington Capitals (8-15-1)
• 29 Dec:  Buffalo Sabres (11-10-1)

December starts with 8 of the first 10 games on the road, with the first 5-games being played in a whirlwind span of just 8 days.  The Penguins play the 3 of the first 4 games against teams that are currently below 0.500 (Toronto, Edmonton and Calgary), and the 4th against Phoenix, which is just slightly above 0.500.  Hopefully the Penguins can play well against these teams to build some momentum as they prepare to face-off against 4 tough division rivals in the middle third of the month.  The mid-month battles include games against Philadelphia, Ottawa, the New York Islanders and the New York Rangers.  The 4 divisional games will be played over the course of 8-days, with all but the game against the Senators coming on the road.  With crucial division points on the line, the Penguins will need to be clicking when they hit that stretch in mid-December as they try to crawl up the points ladder and out of the Atlantic Division basement.  The last third of the month is no cakewalk with 3-games in a 4-day span from 20-23 Dec, against 2-teams well above 0.500 in the Boston Bruins and division rival Islanders.  Post Christmas, the Penguins take on the struggling Capitals and then the Buffalo Sabres in a preview to the outdoor Winter Classic which will be played a few days later on New Year’s Day. 

Last season, the Penguins endured a rough December going 5-7-2 before unleashing the beast and going 8-2-2 in January, 9-3-1 in February, 12-3-2 in March, and 2-1-0 in April.  I think it is unlikely that the Penguins will have similar success in the latter half of this season, so they need to be scratching for every point that they can get along the way to ensure that they can find their way into the playoffs.  I believe that if the Penguins can hit their stride in December, that they have the potential to pick up about 18 of 28 available points on the month.  This will require continued offensive output outside of Gonchar, Sykora, Crosby and Malkin.  It will also require a much more consistent level of play from Marc-Andre Fleury, as well as the defnsive corps playing in front of him.  The last two games offer some hope that this could be the case in December.  A confident Penguins team will be a dangerous team, as was evidenced in the second half of last year.  Let’s hope that the Penguins find and build on that confidence soon.