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Penguins December Preview

After a great start to the season, the Pittsburgh Penguins enter the month of December with a 14-6-3 record having garnered 31 of 46 possible points so far this season (67%).  This puts them on pace for a 110-point season.  The Penguins hold 4th place in the Eastern Conference where they trail the streaking New York Rangers and Boston Bruins by 5-points for the top spot in the East.  With 1-game in hand against the Bruins and 3-games in hand against the Rangers, the Penguins are in a good position given their slow starts of the past few seasons.  It is particularly impressive given that the team exchanged a number of role players in the off-season, has had its 2-top defensemen on extended injured reserve, and has been playing without its top goaltender for the past couple of weeks.  Add to that the fact that Sidney Crosby is just now starting to roll, the Penguins 3rd line has found some awesome chemistry, and Ryan Whitney will be rejoining the team soon, and there is a lot to look forward to.  So what lies ahead in December?

Despite the challenges of starting the season in Europe, the Penguins have had a relatively easy game schedule for the first two months of this season.  That is about to change.  The Penguins will play 14-games in 25-days in December, including four back-to-back games (they played back-to-back games just twice in the first two months).  Speaking about the upcoming back-to-back games, Evgeni Malkin said, “It’s OK, I like it. I like to play games. It’s a little different. The second game is more difficult. It’s more physical.”  Sidney Crosby added his perspective, “You get used to it by going through it.  It’s something that you have to get used to.  Mentally, you deal with.  The more often you go through it, the more comfortable you get with it.  We’ll get lots of practice with it over the next couple of months.”

The Penguins will spend the majority of December on the road, playing 8-games in other rinks and just 6 at home in the Mellon Arena.  The only consecutive home games this month are the last two on the 27th and 30th.  Just 5 games will be played against divisional foes.  The Penguins will face 12-different teams in 14-games to include the Rangers, Hurricanes, Senators, Sabres (2x), Devils (2x), Islanders, Flyers, Thrashers, Maple Leafs, Lightning, Canadiens and Bruins!  The only Eastern Conference teams that they will not face-off against in December are the Florida Panthers and the Washington Capitals.  So, it is sure to be a busy and diverse month ahead!  The following is the full lineup, with the home games italicized:

• 3 Dec – at New York Rangers
• 4 Dec – at Carolina Hurricanes
• 6 Dec – at Ottawa Senators
• 8 Dec – Buffalo Sabres
• 10 Dec – at New Jersey Devils
• 11 Dec – New York Islanders
• 13 Dec – at Philadelphia Flyers
• 18 Dec – at Atlanta Thrashers
• 20 Dec – Toronto Maple Leafs
• 22 Dec – at Buffalo Sabres
• 23 Dec – Tampa Bay Lightning
• 26 Dec – at New Jersey Devils
• 28 Dec – Montreal Canadiens
• 30 Dec – Boston Bruins

The Penguins will face off 7-times against teams currently in the bottom half of the Conference standings and 7-times against teams currently in the top half.  The first game of the month (vs the Rangers) and the last game of the month (vs the Bruins) are the only games against teams currently ahead of the Penguins in the standings.  The Penguins hope to get Ryan Whitney back into the lineup in December, as well as Marc-Andre Fleury and Philippe Bouchard.  Keeping with his rotational leadership plan, Coach Michel Therrien today announced that Jordan Staal and Matt Cooke will wear the “A” as Alternate Captains for the month of December.  This is good recognition for their outstanding play in November. 

In summary, the Penguins face a difficult schedule in the month of December.  This will be a good test for the team, and the road time will provide additional opportunities for the team to gel.  If the Penguins offense remains healthy, I project that they could pick up as many as 22 of 28 available points in December.  I will go out on a limb and project a 10-2-2 record in December.

Penguins March Preview

In my February Preview, I projected that the Penguins fortunes would be mixed and that they would stay just slightly above 0.500 for the month.  I projected a February record of 7-6-1 with the Penguins picking up of 15-of-28 available points (0.536).  Boy was I wrong!  They completed February with an impressive 8-3-3 record and recorded 19-of-28 possible points (0.679), putting them just 1-point out of the Eastern Conference and Atlantic Division lead.  The February surge was largely due to the play of Evgeni Malkin and Ty Conklin, although Petr Sykora, Ryan Malone and Jordan Staal all stepped up their games as well.  Although Malkin only scored points in 1 of his last 4 games, he scored 26-points (9G, 17A) in the 14-games during the month of February to take over the NHL scoring lead.  Ty Conklin went 6-2-3 in February and his 0.930 save percentage now leads the league.  It is now time to look forward to see what the month of March has in store for the Penguins as they head into the final push for the playoffs. 

So what lies ahead for the Penguins in March?  The Penguins will play 15-games for a possible 30-points.  The Penguins will play 7 of the games at home, while 8 will come on the road.  Of the 15-games, the Penguins play 8-games against Atlantic Division rivals in March, including the last 6-games of the month.  They will face the Devils twice (1-road, 1-home), the Rangers three times (2-road, 1-home), the Islanders twice (1-road, 1-home) and the Flyers once (home).  The other 7-games are all against Eastern Conference teams, to include road games against the Senators, Lightning, Panthers and Capitals, and home games against the Thrashers, Sabres and Lightning.  They open the month with back-to-back games against the Senators and Thrashers, have back-to-back games against the Islanders and Devils late in the month, and close the month with back-to-back, home-and-home games against the Rangers.  Of all the teams they will face, only the Devils (80-points) have more points than the Penguins (79-points) at the outset of March. 

As far as the schedule, here is the March layout for the Penguins (36-22-7), 79-points:

• 1 Mar:  @ Ottawa Senators (36-23-6) - 78 points 
• 2 Mar:  Atlanta Thrashers (29-31-5) – 63-points
• 4 Mar:  @ Tampa Bay Lightning (25-31-7) – 57 points 
• 6 Mar:  @ Florida Panthers (28-30-8) – 64 points
• 9 Mar:  @ Washington Capitals (30-27-8) – 68 points
• 12 Mar:  Buffao Sabres (31-24-9) - 71 points
• 16 Mar:  Philadelphia Flyers (32-25-7) - 71 points
• 18 Mar:  @ New York Rangers (33-24-8) - 74 points
• 20 Mar:  Tampa Bay Lightning (25-31-7) – 57 points
• 22 Mar:  New Jersey Devils (37-22-6) - 80 points
• 24 Mar:  @ New York Islanders (31-27-7) – 69 points
• 25 Mar:  @ New Jersey Devils (37-22-6) – 80 points
• 27 Mar:  New York Islanders (31-27-7) – 69 points
• 30 Mar:  New York Rangers (33-24-8) – 74 points
• 31 Mar:  @ New York Rangers (33-24-8) – 74 points

March starts with a flurry with the first 4-games coming in just 6-days.  Also, 4 of the first 5 games come on the road.  The schedule gets rough at the end of March with 5-games coming in just 8-nights (2 at home and 3 on the road).  Last season, the Penguins had a phenomenal run by going 9-3-1 in February, 12-3-2 in March, and 2-1-0 in April.  By comparison, the Penguins are just slightly ahead of last season’s performance through February with 79-points (36-22-7) in 65-games this season (0.608) vs 75-points (33-20-9) in 62-games last season (0.605). 

With Marc-Andre Fleury back in the lineup and Sidney Crosby and Marian Hossa both likely to return soon, the Penguins will look to benefit from the infusion of fresh league talent.  The big intangible for early March will be what the changeup in lines will ultimately do to team chemistry and timing.  With a couple of new players coming into the lineup and learning a new system and new linemates, there is significant potential for some rough edges, especially with opponents playing hard for a playoff spot.  To be successful in March, the Penguins will need to find their chemistry and timing quickly, and significantly improve their defensive play over what they have demonstrated in the last several games. 

I think that the Penguins will continue their winning ways in March.  I am projecting a March record of 9-3-3 with the Penguins picking up of 21 of the 30 available points and hitting 100-points by month’s end.  The Penguins will benefit from strong offensive output by Malone, Sykora, Malkin, Crosby, and Hossa, and continued good play in net by Conklin and Fleury.  The biggest liability will be in the Penguins defense, which will continue to allow far too many shots on net.  The big unknown is whether the Penguins will fare well enough to stake sole claim to the Atlantic Division or the Eastern Conference by month’s end.  Only time will tell!

Lets Go Pens!

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