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Top 5 Reasons the Penguins Will Excel in 2008-09

Over the past month, there has been a lot of chatter that the Pittsburgh Penguins lost their best chance at the Stanley Cup by losing to the Detroit Red Wings this past season.  Assertions have been made that the Penguins gave up too much in the off-season to be competitive for the cup again in the coming season.  Many have highlighted the acquisition and subsequent loss of Marian Hossa and the departure of Ryan Malone as the main points in their argument.  In fact, the Penguins are poised for another phenomenal season and have a better chance of being a cup contender this season than they did at this point last season.  The following are the top 5 reasons that the Penguins will excel again this coming season:

1. The Core is Intact:  Despite the loss of Hossa, Malone, Roberts, Conklin, Ruutu, Laraque and Hall, the Penguins have kept their core young stars intact.  This team was built around a young, talented core that includes Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Marc-Andre Fleury, Jordan Staal and Ryan Whitney.  All of these key players remain in the lineup, and all have been signed to long-term deals with the exception of Jordan Staal who could be signed to a long-term deal in the coming months.  Crosby, Malkin and Fleury have already proven themselves as elite players in this league.  Jordan Staal is on the cusp of a breakout season after posting less than expected numbers last season, but playing a masterful defensive game.  This group of players is the core of the team around which the supporting cast has been built. 
2. Youth, Experience, and Confidence:  The core talent of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Marc-Andre Fleury are just 20 (soon to be 21), 22, and 23, respectively.  Jordan Staal is just 19, Kris Letang is 21, and Ryan Whitney is 25.  These players are still approaching their prime and will only get better in the seasons to come.  Normally with youth comes inexperience and lack of confidence, as was the case over the past two seasons for most of these players.  However, this team gained a tremendous amount of experience and confidence last season as they battled through key injuries to the lineup to come out near the top of the league during the regular season.  Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal, Kris Letang and Ryan Whitney were all put in clutch roles while the team played with an injury-riddled lineup, and they all matured and delivered in the process.  In the playoffs, the Penguins went 12-2 through the first 3-rounds of the playoffs before losing in the Stanley Cup Finals.  These young players have learned what it takes to get to the playoffs, and what it takes to go the distance.  They have lived it first-hand.  They will be a better team next season because of it.


3. Offensive Talent:  The Pittsburgh Penguins finished 7th in the league last season in goals for.  This was accomplished despite Sidney Crosby, one of league’s top offensive threats, out of the lineup for the last half of the season and Jordan Staal under-achieving in his offensive play.  Evgeni Malkin took the opportunity to come into his own and had a career season as a result, powering to the top of the league in points.  This coming season, the Penguins will look to have a full season’s service from the double-threat of Crosby and Malkin.  If Crosby and Malkin can both remain healthy, they will likely finish at or near the top of the league in scoring.  The swing factor next season will be Jordan Staal.  I am anticipating that he will break out of his sophomore scoring slump and put up a 25-30 goal season, partially closing the gap left by Ryan Malone.  Petr Sykora will continue to be a sniper on wing with his stellar shot.  Add to the mix newly acquired Miroslav Satan and Rusty Fedetenko, and I expect that the Penguins will best their offensive production from last season, despite the loss of Ryan Malone.  Note that Marian Hossa was not a key contributor in the Penguins’ regular season success, scoring just 3-goals for the Penguins in 12-games.
4. Goaltending:  Marc-Andre Fleury had a slow start last season.  Just after he was starting to return to form and gain some momentum in early December with 4-straight wins, he suffered the high-ankle injury that sidelined him for much of the latter part of the season.  When he returned in late February, few people expected him to be able to bounce back from the injury and lengthy time-off.  He quickly silenced any critics, however, by coming back and playing 13-games to end the season going 10-2-1 and giving up just 18-goals for a 1.38 GAA and impressive 0.945 save percentage.  He then went on into the playoffs and posted a 14-6 record while giving up just 41 goals in 20-games for a 2.05 GAA and 0.934 save percentage.  There is no question that Marc-Andre Fleury is an elite goaltender in this league and that he can perform under the pressure of playoff hockey.  The goaltending of Marc-Andre Fleury is sure to be a key factor that this team will rise to the top of the league again next season. 

5. Defensive System:  Had I said this last season, I would have been laughed at.  Last year I even called out the Penguins’ defense as their biggest shortcoming prior to the start of the season.  Some people still may not believe in the Penguins’ defense, however, over the course of this past season I have become a believer in the defensive system put in place by Coach Therrien that the team plays so well.  The key to the Penguins defensive system is not just the defensive corps itself nor the strategy employed, but the fact that the entire team embraces and plays it.  As a result, it has been effective for the Penguins and flexible enough to allow the offense to kick in when turnovers and scoring opportunities present themselves. 

There is plenty to be excited about if you are a fan of hockey, and even more so if you are a fan of Pittsburgh Penguins’ hockey.  Look for the Pittsburgh Penguins to return to the ice this fall hungrier than ever before to win.  For the reasons noted above, as well as many other reasons, they are poised to excel again this coming season and for the next several seasons to come.

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Penguins Update

As a hockey fan, one of the great things about having your team go all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals is the fact that the off-season is so short.  While it hardly seems possible, the Penguins 2008-09 regular season is just 10-weeks away.  That means that training camp and pre-season action is coming up just around the corner.  The Penguins will be looking to defend their Eastern Conference Title and renew their push for the Stanley Cup, albeit with a slightly retooled lineup.

While there was much ado about the loss of some key players to free agency during the off-season, the Penguins have managed to keep their core intact.  What is incredible in this day and age is that several players signed for less than their market value to stay and play in Pittsburgh.  That speaks volumes about a team and organization, both in terms of their chemistry and in expectations of where they are going.  The Penguins also had players like Miroslav Satan contacting the organization because he wanted to come and play in Pittsburgh.  Certainly expectations are high for a repeat performance.

What remains to be seen is whether this Coach and group of talented young players can keep the magic going.  I believe that they will.  While the team has lost some valued players in Ryan Malone, Marian Hossa, Gary Roberts, Ty Conklin, Jarkko Ruutu, Georges Laraque and others….they have retained Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Marc-Andre Fleury, Jordan Staal, Brooks Orpik and their whole defensive lineup.  They have also added Miroslav Satan, Ruslan Fedetenko and Janne Pesonen to their ranks as well as some other role players.

Marian Hossa was an unfortunate loss, however, he was not part of the team as they powered through the regular season.  Of all of the losses, I really hate to see Ryan Malone go because of his grit, determination and character.  I think he (and his presence in front of the net) will be missed the most.  Gary Roberts was a tremendous veteran role player, but spent much of the season sidelined with a broken leg and high ankle injury.  Ty Conklin was a clutch player when we needed him most, but would probably not get a significant amount of playing time if Fleury remains healthy.  I will also miss the tenacity of Jarkko Ruutu and the presence of Georges Laraque.  Perhaps the most often overlooked aspect of this team is that they are still so young, and many of these talented young stars will only get better over the next few seasons.

Hopefully Sidney Crosby will remain healthy in the coming season, and will return to the lineup fully recovered from the high ankle sprain that kept him out most of the second half of last year.  I never got the feeling that he was fully 100% after returning to the lineup, and injury requires the type of rest that only the off-season can afford.  His injury was perhaps a blessing in disguise, however, as it showcased the talent and workhorse leadership of Evgeni Malkin and gave him a confidence that will allow him to flourish even more this coming season.  The way that Marc-Andre Fleury played after coming off from his extended injury left no doubt that he is an elite goaltender in this league.  I can only see his play last season as boosting his confidence and level of play for the season to come.  I believe that Jordan Staal is on the verge of a breakout season.  Last season, his offensive numbers were off from his freshman year performance, however his defensive play was impressive for such a young player.  Near the end of the season, his offense picked up a bit, and I expect we will see a much more productive Jordan Staal in the coming months.

Miroslav Satan is a talented right wing who will likely benefit from playing alongside the talented Penguins’ centers.  Ruslan Fedetenko is in the same boat on left wing.  Both of these players are coming from the under-achieving New York Islanders team and have signed 1-year contracts with the Penguins.  As such, both players will be highly motivated to perform, and will have a much stronger supporting cast than they saw in New York.  I expect both players will have a strong season, with Rusty having a potential career high season if he can stay healthy.  Janne Pesonen is an exciting prospect to add to the mix.  Also signed to a 1-year contract, Pesonen was the leading scorer of the Finnish super league in 2008, scoring 78-points (34G, 44) in 56-games.  A talented and fast winger, if Pesonen can find a spot on the roster, he might prove a valuable addition to the Penguins lineup.

The excitement that is Penguins Hockey will soon be back upon us.  The new year will start in Stockholm, Sweden, where the Penguins will open the season with back-to-back games against the Ottawa Senators on October 4th and 5th.  Then they will bring it back home with a 4-game home stand.  I am looking forward to training camp to see how the team will look with the new additions, and what kinds of line combinations will result.  The good news is that the wait won’t be very long.

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Penguins Limp Towards Free Agency

With just a few days to go before the July 1st opening of the free agency market, the Penguins have so far failed to complete any of their post-season priorities.  It was no secret that the Penguins wanted to lock up a long-term deal with Marian Hossa, re-sign Brooks Orpik, and tender a trade prior to the draft to acquire a first round pick.  To help with the challenges, the Penguins filed for salary arbitration with Marc-Andre Fleury to buy some time on his contract talks to focus on getting the other deals done.  So far, the Penguins have nothing to show for their efforts aside from some public rejections from the players involved. 

Ray Shero and his team spent much of their pre-draft time and effort drawing up a long term deal for Marian Hossa.  The offer tendered by the Penguins was rumored to be in the 7-year and $50M range.  With Hossa’s post-playoff comments that he would be willing to accept less money to play for a great team, it was widely believed that this was a signal of his intent to stay in Pittsburgh.  Last week, rumor had it that Hossa would sign a deal before last Saturday’s draft.  However, on draft day Hossa rejected the offer and informed Shero that he was going to test the free agency market, noting that the Penguins were still at the top of the list.  It seems an obvious negotiating tactic on behalf of Marian Hossa and his agent to let the free market pressure ensure that they get the best offer on the table before making a decision.  Ray Shero noted however that the offer may no longer be on the table after July 1st.  It seems a low risk proposition for a player that is sure to command matching or better offers outside of Pittsburgh.

During the Hossa negotiations, the Penguins were also shopping potential pre-draft trade deals to trade away the rights of pending free agents in return for a first or second round draft pick.  The most notable was a rumored deal with Columbus to move Ryan Malone for a 2nd round pick.  At the last minute, however, Ryan Malone stated his intent to test free agency and that he would not be talking to any teams prior to July 1st.  This slammed the door shut on the Penguins hopes to get something in return for the blossoming power forward.  It seemed a fitting gesture from the budding power forward and local hero after the Penguins’ management opted to not make Malone’s re-signing a priority for the team.   As a result, the Penguins were not able to better their position for the draft. 

The Penguins then put the focus on defenseman Brooks Orpik, with the intention of signing him before next week’s free agency deadline.  The Penguins tendered an undisclosed multi-year offer rumored to be in the $3M per year range,  Yestderday, Brooks Orpik and his agent turned down that offer.  Orpik didn’t indicate that he intended to test out free agency, leaving open the possibility that a new offer and deal could be struck before Tuesday. 

In other disheartening news, wiley veteran Gary Roberts has indicated through his agent that he is parting ways with the Penguins.  “He very much enjoyed his time there,” his agent said. “But he understands that Ray has a number of items on his agenda that would take priority.”  Roberts reportedly wants to continue his NHL career at least one more season.

In the only bit of good news from the last 2 weeeks, the NHL’s salary cap for next season was announced yesterday and it has grown by $6.4M over last season to $56.7M.  League commissioner Gary Bettman had previously expected a $3 million increase.  The higher cap gives team’s more bargaining ceiling should the team’s ownership be willing to foot the bill.  The Trib reports that the Penguins ownership is believed to be willing to spend up to the cap, even though it would likely mean operating at a loss for the next 2 seasons until the Penguins move into their new arena.  It will be interesting to see if this affects the on-going negotiations with Brooks Orpik and whether it creates an opportunity for revisiting the Hossa offer.  It could also affect the post-July 1st negotiations expected between the Penguins and Evgeni Malkin. 

On Tuesday, the free agency market will commence and the Penguins could find themselves having to re-wicker their priorities and objectives if they can’t land Marian Hossa and/or Brooks Orpik.  I am sure this is not the scenario that Ray Shero wanted to be in at this point, but realistically it is probably the scenario that he expected to be in.  You can’t blame a player for trying to maximize his earning potential.  All we can do as fans of the game is hope for the best and hope that the majority of this special group of players remain intact for another run at the cup in the coming season. 

Let’s Go Pens!

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Off-Season Contract Activities Heating Up

The Pittsburgh Penguins have a lot of work to do in the off-season to attempt to keep their core team together with the constraints of the salary cap as 12-players head to unrestricted free agency in a little over two weeks on July 1st.  This week, Ray Shero started to set the table by prioritizing the difficult task ahead of him. 

Shero made the first move on Friday by filing for salary arbitration for Marc-Andre Fleury with the National Hockey League.  The league-managed arbitration hearings take place July 20 to August 4.  This allows the Penguins to retain his rights past July 1st, when he would have become a restricted free agent, and grants them time continue to negotiate his contract.  Shero noted that filing for salary arbitration gives the Penguins the extra time to continue to negotiate a contract with Fleury.  “As a result of the filing, Penguins’ fans are assured that Marc-Andre will be under contract to our club for next season,” stated Shero.  “We remain committed to negotiating a contract with him in the near future.”

According to Rob Rossi of the Pittsburgh Tribune Review, various players, agents and team officials have indicated off the record that a long-term contract for Marian Hossa is the #1 priority being pursued by Penguins’ management.  Hossa’s value on the open market is expected to be above $8M per year, but he indicated at the end of the season that he was open to taking less salary for the opportunity to play on a good team.  The Penguins are reportedly looking at a long term deal worth less than the $8M+ that Hossa might be offered outside of Pittsburgh.  Rossi reports that the offer from Pittsburgh is likely to be worth nearly $50 million over seven years, which would be slightly more than his current $7M per year salary and less than he would likely command on the open market.  The Penguins will need a quick decision on Hossa, as the outcome will likely affect their ability to close on other unrestricted free agents, to include Ryan Malone and Brooks Orpik.  If the Penguins can ink a deal with Hossa, it is likely that they will only be able to retain one of the two.  Both Orpik and Malone have increased their market value over the last season, and it would appear that there won’t be enough room payroll for all three players (Hossa, Orpik and Malone) without serious concessions by the players. 

Evgeni Malkin made several encouraging comments for Penguins fans on Thursday night as he stated that he expects to sign a 5 or 6 year deal soon.  The Penguins cannot sign a deal with Malkin until after July 1st due to league collective bargaining rules.  Malkin stated that he would accept an annual salary less than the $8.7 million that Crosby will get over the next 5 seasons.  Malkin, a league MVP finalist, was named to the NHL All-Star First Team after a pehenomenal season in Pittsburgh this year.  “I’m an easy guy to deal with. I’d love to stay in Pittsburgh.”  It is encouraging to note that the players want to stay in Pittsburgh, and it is a testament to the potential of the team, the management, and the chemistry that exists amongst this unique group of talented hockey players.

 

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Pittsburgh Penguins Off-Season Roster Challenges

What a fabulous season for the Pittsburgh Penguins, despite the disappointment of falling two-games short of hoisting Lord Stanley’s Cup.  In a season marred by lengthy injuries to key players, the Penguins found ways to overcome and finish the season just 2-points behind the Montreal Canadiens in the Eastern Conference race.  Key players stepped up at key times to cover roster injuries to Sidney Crosby, Marc-Andre Fleury, Marc Eaton, Max Talbot, and Gary Roberts to name a few.  Ray Shero made key trades at the deadline to bolster the lineup with Marian Hossa, Pascal Dupuis and Hal Gill.  The resilient Penguins ultimately went on to win the Eastern Conference Title and force Game 6 in the Stanley Cup Finals against the formidable Detroit Red Wings after going down 2-0.  Through it all, a very young, talented team gained invaluable experience and maturity that will serve them well into the future, both individually and as a team.  It was truly a great year for Penguins’ hockey.  So as the off-season sets in, what roster challenges lie ahead?

Penguins’ General Manager Ray Shero has his work cut out for him as he tries to retain as much of his talent as possible within the league-imposed Salary Cap, which is projected to be $56M for next season.  Even if Shero can negotiate with the players and find a way to bring all the talent back within the Salary Cap, it is uncertain whether the he will be afforded the resources necessary to spend up to the full cap amount.  This season, the Penguins spent $40.6M, well under the $50.3M cap.  If they were to use the full salary cap, the Penguins would have to absorb a 38% payroll increase at a time that they are also financing a new arena.  For a team that has had to dealt with the spectre of bankruptcy, this could well be mission impossible.  On the other hand, the team sold out every game this season and played 11 sold-out games at home in the post-season, and is undoubtedly one of the best prospects in the NHL for the next few seasons. 

First and foremost, Ray Shero will likely look to lock up Marc-Andre Fleury.  Fleury will become a restricted free agent on July 1st, and the Penguins will want to tie him up before any other offers come in.  Then they will turn their efforts towards a long list of unrestricted free agents.  The Penguins have 12-players heading to unrestricted free agency on July 1st.  The Penguins management will have to prioritize their key needs and focus on them first, as I expect some of these players will be heading out of Pittsburgh over the summer.  Lastly, the Penguins will likely try and lock up Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal who are entering the final year of their entry level contracts.  Here is the breakdown of where things stand heading into free agency on July 1st:

Restricted Free Agents on July 1st:

• Marc-Andre Fleury:  Despite a lengthy in-season injury, Fleury came back and proved he is an elite goaltender, and was phenomenal in the post-season.  He should be the #1 priority for the Penguins who will look to get him on contract before his July 1st restricted free agency.  He made $1.6M this season, and is a must keep. 

Unrestricted Free Agents on July 1st:

• Marian Hossa:  Picked up in a blockbuster deal at the trade deadline to play on Crosby’s wing, it is possible that we just started to see the magic between the two as the post-season ended.  He improved his stock by showing he can deliver in the post-season.  The Penguins want to keep Marian Hossa, but will likely be outbid in free agency.  Whether he stays or goes will likely be up to Marian Hossa and his desire to stay with this exciting young team.  He made $7M this season.
• Gary Roberts:  After a tough season marred by serious injury, 42-year old Gary Roberts may opt to retire.  He has been the veteran leader that the Penguins have asked him to be.  He made $2.5M this season. 
• Mark Eaton:  Injury has kept Mark Eaton off the Penguins’ roster and will likely affect his open market value.  If he can stay healthy, he will be a solid defensive contributor alongside Sergei Gonchar.  He made $1.6M this season. 
• Ryan Malone:  Proved his worth as a power forward in this league and in so doing may have priced himself out of the Penguins’ market for next season.  The native local hero will likely be loath to leave this team and the city of Pittsburgh, but he may opt to do so depending upon what the open market has to offer.  He made $1.45M this season. 
• Georges Laraque:  A big presence on the 4th line who showed that he can contribute along the boards, as well as in the boxing ring.  He made $1.3M this season.  
• Jarkko Ruutu:  A gritty contender and crowd favorite for Pittsburgh who made some key contributions throughout the season.  He will likely draw interest from other teams in free agency.  He made $1.15M this season. 
• Brooks Orpik:  Had a tremendous season on defense for the Penguins, vastly increasing his stock on the open market.  He will be difficult to retain.  He made $1.075M this season. 
• Pascal Dupuis:  Came to Pittsburgh in the deal with Marian Hossa, and was a nice surprise in terms of speed and energy.  He made $880K this season.
• Kris Beech:  Largely anonymous in just 5-games this season, troubled with injury.  He made $585K this season.
• Adam Hall:  Proved a solid contributor throughout the season and played very well in the post-season.  He made $525K this season.
• Jeff Taffe:  Solid role player who added the depth that the Penguins needed during the injury-riddled season.  He made $500K this season.
• Ty Conklin:  Who wouldn’t like to keep Ty Conklin in the lineup after his phenomenal stand-in job this season while Fleury was injured.  With his stock back up, he may be picked up in free agency for more than the Penguins can afford.  He made $500K this season.

On-Contract Through Next Season (~$29.97M):

• Sidney Crosby:  Signed through 2013 at an arguably bargain price of $8.7 million per season.
• Sergei Gonchar:  Signed through 2010 at $5M per season.
• Ryan Whitney:  Signed through 2013 at $4M per season.
• Petr Sykora:  Signed through 2009 at $2.5M. 
• Darryl Sydor:  Signed through 2009 at $2.5M.
• Hal Gill:  Signed through 2009 at $2.1M.
• Evgeni Malkin:  Aside from his late playoff slump, Evgeni Malkin significantly increased his stock this season by blooming while Sidney Crosby was sidelined.  Malkin has one more year on his entry-level contract at $985K, and could eclipse Crosby’s $8.7M annual salary in an extension deal, that could get inked this summer. 
• Jordan Staal:  At just 19 and with another year on his entry level contract at $850K, the Penguins will want to lock him into a longer term deal ASAP.  For Staal, it may make more sense to wait until next summer to see if he can increase his stock over the next season.
• Kris Letang:  Signed through 2010 at $835K per season.
• Rob Scuderi:  Signed through 2009 at $725K. 
• Maxime Talbot:  Signed through next season at $700K.
• Tyler Kennedy:  Signed through next season at $550K.
• Dany Sabourin:  Signed through 2009 at $525K.

In summary, the Penguins have ~$30M locked up in existing signed contracts for next season, leaving at most ~$26M in salary cap room.  From that, the Penguins could conceiveably spend ~$4.5M on Marc-Andre Fleury and ~$9M on Marian Hossa, leaving just ~$12.5M to spread across the remainder of the lineup.  This would be just enough to cover the remaining free agents at their current year’s salary.  This would give no ability to re-sign Ryan Malone at open market value (likely ~$3M+) or Brooks Orpik at open market value (likely ~$3M+).  If Gary Roberts retires, that would free up some room, but you would have to determine how to backfill him on the roster.  My guess is that the Penguins will retain one, but not both, of Malone and Orpik.  As July 1st draws near, contract deals will start to emerge and we will get a better picture of what the team may give up over the summer, and what some players may be willing to do to stay on a team that will continue to be a cup contender in the coming years. 

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