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Eastern Conference Finals Preview – Penguins vs Flyers

The 2007/08 Eastern Conference Finals will commence Friday night at Mellon Arena as the Pittsburgh Penguins play host to the cross-state rival Philadelphia Flyers.  Pittsburgh, the 2nd seed in the East, owns the home ice advantage against the 6th-seeded Flyers.  The Penguins advanced to the Finals by sweeping the 7th-seeded Ottawa Senators in round 1 and beating the 5th-seeded New York Rangers in 5-games in round 2.  The Flyers advanced by beating the 3rd-seeded Washington Capitals in 7-games and then knocking off the 1st-seeded Montreal Canadiens in 5-games.  The Finals promise to be a wild ride between two teams that have a healthy dose of dislike for one another, and a tremendous amount of skill and momentum.  So how do these two teams match up?  Let’s take a look.

The Pittsburgh Penguins have been an unstoppable force on the ice so far in the playoffs having lost just 1-game through 2-rounds, a league best.  The Penguins have excelled on the play of their special teams, their defense and stellar netminding.  Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has been phenomenal in net in the playoffs, leading the league with a 0.938 save percentage, a 0.889 win percentage, and 2 shutouts.  He is also 3rd in goals against average at 1.76 behind Detroit’s Chris Osgood (1.52) and Dallas’ Marty Turco (1.73).  The Penguins have given up the fewest goals per game at just 1.89, and own the best penalty kill of all remaining teams at 89.5% (second only to Boston who finished at 90.9%).  The Penguins’ power play has been highly effective at 23.4%.  The Penguins have found balanced scoring across all 4-lines with 12-of-13 forwards recording at least one goal, and 18-of-19 players scoring at least one point in 9 playoff games.  The Penguins’ star players have lived up to their expectations with Sidney Crosby (2G, 12A) and Evgeni Malkin (6G, 8A) combining for 14-points each and Marian Hossa notching 10-points (5G, 5A).  The only significant weakness that the Penguins have exhibited in the playoffs has been their performance in the face-off circle, where they trail the league at 46.3%.  It hasn’t burned them yet, however, as they have won 8 of their 9 games and outscored their opponents convincingly 31-17.

The Philadelphia Flyers have bounced back from being the worst team in the league last season to knocking off the #1 seeded Canadiens and #3 seeded Capitals through the first 2 rounds of the playoffs this season.  The Flyers offense has produced both in 5-on-5 play and on the powerplay.  The tandem of Pittsburgh native R.J. Umberger (9G, 2A) and Daniel Briere (8G, 6A) have combined for 17-goals through 12-games, and the Flyers are 2nd in Goals Per Game at 3.58.  Mike Richards (4G, 7A) and Vaclav Prospal (2G, 9A) are also in double-digit point territory.  The Flyers powerplay is clicking at 24% effectiveness.  Their penalty kill, however, has been much less effective at 77.2%.  In the net, Martin Biron has been notably solid, but his numbers pale in comparison to Pittsburgh’s Fleury.  Biron’s 2.72 GAA is 8th in the playoffs and his 0.914 save percentage is 3rd among the four remaining starting goalies.  The Flyers have built confidence and momentum by beating two higher seeded teams in the first two rounds, to include ousting the #1 Montreal Canadiens in just 5-games.  The Flyers outscored their opponents 43-34 in 12-games.

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Through the regular season, the Flyers beat the Penguins in 5 of 8 matchups and outscored them 28-23.  However, the Penguins 3 wins came in the last 4 meetings of the two teams in which the Penguins outscored the Flyers 15-8.  Regardless, the regular season has very little relevance now that both teams have battled into the Eastern Conference Finals.  It is a whole new season, and the first team to win 4-games will advance to the Stanley Cup Championship.

The key to this series is likely to be all about special teams and defensive play.  If the Penguins can use their speed and tenacity to draw Philadelphia into the penalty box, the Penguins should be able to dominate the series with their exceptional offense and superior netminding.  If the Penguins find themselves in penalty trouble, they will need Marc-Andre Fleury and the penalty kill to continue to shut down the opposition as they have in the first 9-games.  With the uncertainty of Max Talbot’s injury status, the penalty kill could be less effective than it has been through the first two rounds, so the Penguins will need to be responsible and focused to stay out of the box.  The Penguins will also need a big series out of role players Gary Roberts, Jarkko Ruutu and Georges Laraque to keep the ever-gritty Flyers in check.

In summary, I believe that the Penguins have the edge in their special teams, defensive play, and goaltending, all areas that win playoff games.  The Penguins offense is also second to none, with Marian Hossa living up to his potential in the post-season and Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Sergei Gonchar, Petr Sykora and Ryan Malone all continuing to perform.  I don’t believe that the Flyers defense will ultimately be able to stop the Penguins and Martin Biron’s play, though notable, won’t be enough to douse the firepower of the Penguins offensive stars.  That being said, this promises to be a very chippy and entertaining series between 2-bitter rivals, and the Penguins will need to play their best hockey to avoid disappointment.  Hockey fans rejoice!  We are picking the Penguins to win the series in 6-games and advance to the Stanley Cup Championship series.

Let’s Go Pens!

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Penguins to Face Rangers in Round 2

After a lengthy layoff, the Pittsburgh Penguins finally know who they will face in round two of the playoffs.  The Washington Capitals lost to the Philadelphia Flyers tonight in a Game 7 overtime thriller, which means that the Penguins will face off against the New York Rangers in the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals.  The Montreal Canadiens, seeded #1 in the East, will get paired with the Philadelphia Flyers who hold the lowest seed of the advancing teams.  Had the Capitals won, it would have been a Penguins-Capitals matchup for Round 2.  Instead, it will be a fight between two teams that advanced out of the first round the quickest.

The Penguins were the first team to advance and the only Round 1 sweep having beaten the fading Ottawa Senators in 4-games while trouncing them on the scoresheets 16-5.  The Penguins averaged 4-goals per game and red hot Marc-Andre Fleury posted a scathing 1.26 goals against average and a 0.955 save percentage.  The Penguins got contributions up and down their lineup in Round 1 with only 4-skaters going pointless in the 4-game series (Hal Gill, Adam Hall, Brooks Orpik and Kris Letang).  Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Marian Hossa, Ryan Malone and Petr Sykora combined for 28-points (10G, 18A).  The Penguins netted 6 of their 16 goals on the power play, and gave up just 1-goal while on the penalty kill.  After a lengthy wait, a rested and healthy Penguins team are itching to get back into the action. 

The Rangers were the second team to advance out of Round 1 by eliminating Martin Brodeur and the New Jersey Devils in 5-games by outscoring them 19-12.  The Rangers averaged 3.8 goals per game in round 1, finding balanced scoring across their lineup.  Jaromir Jagr (2G, 6A), Scott Gomez (3G, 4A), Brandon Dubinsky (3G, 3A) and Martin Straka (3G, 2A) led the scoring for the Rangers.  Henrik Lundqvist was phenomenal giving up just 1-goal in each of the first 2-games, but softened in games 3-5 where he gave up 3.3 goals average per game.  Lundqvist ended the first round with a 2.35 goals against average and a 0.917 save percentage.  Just 3 of the Rangers’ 19-goals came on the power play, while 5 of their 12 goals against came while they were on the penalty kill.  Being plenty rested themselves, the Rangers are also eager to get back on the ice. 

The Penguins and Rangers met 8-times during the regular season.  Pittsburgh went 3-3-2 in the series, and was outscored by New York 21-16.  However, the Penguins played better against the Rangers in the latter half of the season.  Through the first 4-games, they were 1-2-1 against the Rangers and were outscored 12-6.  After the 1st of January, the Penguins went 2-1-1 against the Rangers and outscored them 10-9. 

The Rangers will certainly be a formiddable foe in round 2 as their offensive stars have shined in the playoffs.  The Rangers offense are healthy and firing on all cylinders.  Unlike round 1, the Penguins won’t have the luxury of facing a depleted and faltering offensive lineup.  The Penguins will need Marc-Andre Fleury and the defensive corps to bring their A-game to shut down the potent offense of the Rangers.  With a high-powered offense of their own, the Penguins will need to put relentless pressure on Henrik Lundqvist from the start and prevent him from gaining back any of the confidence he exhibited in games 1 and 2.  As is often the case in playoffs, special teams will likely be a difference maker.  The Penguins special teams have the advantage in this series.

Game 1 between the Penguins and Rangers will be played on Friday, 25 April.  Games 2, 3 and 4 will follow on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday respectively. 

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Round 1 Playoff Preview: Penguins vs Senators

The first round of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs will start on Wednesday, April 9th, with the Pittsburgh Penguins (47-27-8) facing off against the Ottawa Senators (43-31-8).  While we saw the same first round matchup last year with Ottawa winning 4-1 before advancing to the Stanley Cup Finals, don’t expect a replay of last year’s series.  A lot has changed in the course of a year and the now healthy and confident Pittsburgh Penguins team seem poised to take advantage of a wounded, less confident Ottawa team and make a much deeper run into the playoffs. 

After getting off to a slow start on the season, the Pittsburgh Penguins turned their season around after an emotional 6-5 overtime shootout win against the Ottawa Senators on Thanksgiving Day.  The Penguins went into that game 8-11-2 at the bottom of the Atlantic Division against the Eastern Conference leading Senators.  After that game, the Penguins went 38-16-6 to win the Atlantic Division.  The Senators started their season on fire going 16-4-0 before meeting up with the Penguins on Thanksgiving.  After that overtime loss to the Penguins, the Senators went 27-27-7, plummeting from 1st in the Eastern Conference to 7th, and nearly missing the playoffs. 

So what has changed from last season for the Penguins?  First, the Penguins players have matured as individuals and as a team.  Unlike last season, the young Penguins now know first hand what to expect in a playoff series.  They do not have to rely upon veteran players like Gary Roberts to try and explain what to expect in the playoffs.  Much more than that, the Penguins have matured as a team throughout the season as they have dealt with and overcome adversity.  The Penguins dealt with the loss of their #1 goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury for over 2-months, their #1 player and league MVP Sidney Crosby for over 2-months, their wiley veteran Gary Roberts for nearly 3-months, and a number of other key players that missed games with various injuries.  Despite it all, the resilient young Penguins finished on top of the Atlantic Division, clinching their first division title in 10-years.  They also came 2-points shy of claiming the #1 spot atop the Eastern Conference. 

Another change for the Penguins is the upgrades made to the lineup.  Most notable among them was the NHL’s top-rated winger Marian Hossa from the Atlanta Thrashers.  The creative, prolific scorer was acquired to complement Sidney Crosby on the team’s top line, allowing team MVP Evgeni Malkin to continue to center the hottest 2nd line in the NHL.  Along with Hossa, the Penguins acquired more speed on wing with Pascal Dupuis and a burly, tough defenseman in Hal Gill.  The Penguins trade deals were arguably a significant net positive for the team.  Additionally, the Penguins found a gem in third-string goaltender Ty Conklin, who stepped in and more than filled the shoes of Marc-Andre Fleury during his absence.  His outstanding play makes him a very formidable backup to Fleury as the Penguins enter the playoffs.  Through it all, the Penguins maintained that intangible element of chemistry that is the hallmark of all great sports teams. 

Aside from the maturity gained and the changes to the Penguins lineup, several players on the team are having career years.  Evgeni Malkin has been sizzling hot in the latter half of the season and finished second in league scoring with 106-points (47G, 59A).  Linemate Ryan Malone has come into his own this year by besting his previous career stats with 51-points (27G, 24A), and becoming a real force in front of the net.  Veteran Petr Sykora turned in his best performance in 7-years with 63-points (28G, 35A).  Veteran defenseman Sergei Gonchar had his second best season and finished second in league defenseman scoring behind Niklas Lidstrom with 65-points (12G, 53A).  Goaltender Ty Conklingave an MVP-worthy performance by going 18-8-5, with a league 2nd best 0.923 save percentage and 2.51 GAA.  And despite an injury shortened season, Marc-Andre Fleury has been phenomenal going 19-10-2, with a career best and league 5th best 0.921 save percentage and 2.33 GAA.  Fleury has been 10-2-1 in his 13-starts after returning from injury.   

For the Senators, it has been a much different story.  At the beginning of the season, the Senators were a team poised to run away with the top seed in the East.  By the end of the season, they had to battle to stay in the playoff picture.  Things got so bad in the second half of the season that general manager Bryan Murray fired head coach John Paddock on February 27 and placed himself behind the bench.  Murray had been the head coach of Ottawa during their Stanley Cup finals run last season.  Murray’s presence did little to rouse the failing Senators who went just 7-9-2 in the remaining games and nearly fell out of playoff contention in the tight Eastern Conference. 

Heading into the playoffs, the Senators are dealing with additional adversity as top line winger and Captain Daniel Alfredsson is expected to miss the first round with knee and neck injuries.  The loss of Alfredsson could be a fatal blow to the Senators who depend upon him for his excellent two-way play.  In addition to losing Alfredsson, the Senators will also be playing without centerman Mike Fisher who will also miss the opening series with a knee injury.  Another challenge for the Senators is their tenuous goaltending situation.  Ray Emery went just 12-13-4 with a 3.13 GAA this season as he lost the starting job to veteran Martin Gerber. Emery’s lackluster play was underscored by disciplinary issues as he showed up late for practice several times andwas fined as a result.  Martin Gerber finished the season 30-18-4 with a 2.72 GAA and .910 save percentage, but has failed to keep the team in games as their performance has faded. 

While the Senators won the season series against the Penguins (3-0-1), the Penguins now clearly hold the upper hand in this post-season matchup.  The Penguins are playing as a team with confidence and are now nearly 100% healthy.  The Senators have lost their early season confidence and will be playing with critical elements of their lineup missing.  With special teams being a swing factor in the playoffs, the Penguins hold the advantage with a power play that is one of the most lethal in the league while the Senators have significantly struggled on the penalty kill.  In net, the Penguins goaltending situation is rock solid, while the Senators goaltending has been tenuous.  The Penguins have a huge 15-2-3 home record since January 1st, outscoring their opponents 80-42.  The Senators have gone 8-13-2 on the road in the same timeframe, and have been outscored by their opponents 80-61.  It would seem to follow that home ice should play heavily in the favor of the Penguins. 

After reviewing all of the factors, I am projecting that the Penguins will win the series handily in 5-games. 

UPDATED 9 Apr 08 – Video Links:

• VIDEO:  Coach Therrien Pre-Game Press Conference
• VIDEO:  Post-Practice Crosby Scrum 
• VIDEO:  Inside the Locker Room

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