---

Penguins March Preview

In my February Preview, I projected that the Penguins fortunes would be mixed and that they would stay just slightly above 0.500 for the month.  I projected a February record of 7-6-1 with the Penguins picking up of 15-of-28 available points (0.536).  Boy was I wrong!  They completed February with an impressive 8-3-3 record and recorded 19-of-28 possible points (0.679), putting them just 1-point out of the Eastern Conference and Atlantic Division lead.  The February surge was largely due to the play of Evgeni Malkin and Ty Conklin, although Petr Sykora, Ryan Malone and Jordan Staal all stepped up their games as well.  Although Malkin only scored points in 1 of his last 4 games, he scored 26-points (9G, 17A) in the 14-games during the month of February to take over the NHL scoring lead.  Ty Conklin went 6-2-3 in February and his 0.930 save percentage now leads the league.  It is now time to look forward to see what the month of March has in store for the Penguins as they head into the final push for the playoffs. 

So what lies ahead for the Penguins in March?  The Penguins will play 15-games for a possible 30-points.  The Penguins will play 7 of the games at home, while 8 will come on the road.  Of the 15-games, the Penguins play 8-games against Atlantic Division rivals in March, including the last 6-games of the month.  They will face the Devils twice (1-road, 1-home), the Rangers three times (2-road, 1-home), the Islanders twice (1-road, 1-home) and the Flyers once (home).  The other 7-games are all against Eastern Conference teams, to include road games against the Senators, Lightning, Panthers and Capitals, and home games against the Thrashers, Sabres and Lightning.  They open the month with back-to-back games against the Senators and Thrashers, have back-to-back games against the Islanders and Devils late in the month, and close the month with back-to-back, home-and-home games against the Rangers.  Of all the teams they will face, only the Devils (80-points) have more points than the Penguins (79-points) at the outset of March. 

As far as the schedule, here is the March layout for the Penguins (36-22-7), 79-points:

• 1 Mar:  @ Ottawa Senators (36-23-6) - 78 points 
• 2 Mar:  Atlanta Thrashers (29-31-5) – 63-points
• 4 Mar:  @ Tampa Bay Lightning (25-31-7) – 57 points 
• 6 Mar:  @ Florida Panthers (28-30-8) – 64 points
• 9 Mar:  @ Washington Capitals (30-27-8) – 68 points
• 12 Mar:  Buffao Sabres (31-24-9) - 71 points
• 16 Mar:  Philadelphia Flyers (32-25-7) - 71 points
• 18 Mar:  @ New York Rangers (33-24-8) - 74 points
• 20 Mar:  Tampa Bay Lightning (25-31-7) – 57 points
• 22 Mar:  New Jersey Devils (37-22-6) - 80 points
• 24 Mar:  @ New York Islanders (31-27-7) – 69 points
• 25 Mar:  @ New Jersey Devils (37-22-6) – 80 points
• 27 Mar:  New York Islanders (31-27-7) – 69 points
• 30 Mar:  New York Rangers (33-24-8) – 74 points
• 31 Mar:  @ New York Rangers (33-24-8) – 74 points

March starts with a flurry with the first 4-games coming in just 6-days.  Also, 4 of the first 5 games come on the road.  The schedule gets rough at the end of March with 5-games coming in just 8-nights (2 at home and 3 on the road).  Last season, the Penguins had a phenomenal run by going 9-3-1 in February, 12-3-2 in March, and 2-1-0 in April.  By comparison, the Penguins are just slightly ahead of last season’s performance through February with 79-points (36-22-7) in 65-games this season (0.608) vs 75-points (33-20-9) in 62-games last season (0.605). 

With Marc-Andre Fleury back in the lineup and Sidney Crosby and Marian Hossa both likely to return soon, the Penguins will look to benefit from the infusion of fresh league talent.  The big intangible for early March will be what the changeup in lines will ultimately do to team chemistry and timing.  With a couple of new players coming into the lineup and learning a new system and new linemates, there is significant potential for some rough edges, especially with opponents playing hard for a playoff spot.  To be successful in March, the Penguins will need to find their chemistry and timing quickly, and significantly improve their defensive play over what they have demonstrated in the last several games. 

I think that the Penguins will continue their winning ways in March.  I am projecting a March record of 9-3-3 with the Penguins picking up of 21 of the 30 available points and hitting 100-points by month’s end.  The Penguins will benefit from strong offensive output by Malone, Sykora, Malkin, Crosby, and Hossa, and continued good play in net by Conklin and Fleury.  The biggest liability will be in the Penguins defense, which will continue to allow far too many shots on net.  The big unknown is whether the Penguins will fare well enough to stake sole claim to the Atlantic Division or the Eastern Conference by month’s end.  Only time will tell!

Lets Go Pens!

Penguins December Preview

The Pittsburgh Penguins play one more game in November before hitting a 14-game stretch in December, with 8 of the first 10 coming on the road.  They will likely be glad to put the tough month of November behind them after going 4-7-1 for 9 of 24 possible points, with one game remaining to play.  By comparison, the Penguins escaped November 2006 with a 5-5-4 record for 14 of 28 possible points last season.  So, what is in store for the Penguins as they head into December?

First, it is undeniable that the last two victories may have helped turn the corner on a less than acceptable season start.  Beating Ottawa, the league’s #1 team by a score to 6-5 in a double come from behind shootout on their own turf was certainly a shot-in-the-arm for the young, talented Penguins.  The subsequent 5-0 thrashing of Atlanta was also a momentum builder with a Fleury shutout and goals coming from snake-bitten supporting cast members Jordan Staal and Colby Armstrong.  The real test will be to see how they fare against the Dallas Stars on Friday night after a 5-day layoff.  Will they be able to maintain the momentum and synergy that developed in the last 2-games, or will they come out flat and plant the seed of doubt back in the minds? 

As far as the road ahead in December, here is the layout:

• 1 Dec:  @ Toronto Maple Leafs (8-11-5)
• 3 Dec:  Phoenix Coyotes (11-10-0)
• 5 Dec:  @ Edmonton Oilers (10-13-1)
• 6 Dec:  @ Calgary Flames (10-11-3)
• 8 Dec:  @ Vancouver Canucks (12-9-2)
• 11 Dec:  @ at Philadelphia Flyers (13-8-2)
• 13 Dec:  Ottawa Senators (16-5-1)
• 15 Dec:  @ New York Islanders (12-8-3)
• 18 Dec:  @ New York Rangers (13-9-2)
• 20 Dec:  @  Boston Bruins (12-8-2)
• 21 Dec:  New York Islanders (12-8-3)
• 23 Dec:  Boston Bruins (12-8-2)
• 27 Dec:  Washington Capitals (8-15-1)
• 29 Dec:  Buffalo Sabres (11-10-1)

December starts with 8 of the first 10 games on the road, with the first 5-games being played in a whirlwind span of just 8 days.  The Penguins play the 3 of the first 4 games against teams that are currently below 0.500 (Toronto, Edmonton and Calgary), and the 4th against Phoenix, which is just slightly above 0.500.  Hopefully the Penguins can play well against these teams to build some momentum as they prepare to face-off against 4 tough division rivals in the middle third of the month.  The mid-month battles include games against Philadelphia, Ottawa, the New York Islanders and the New York Rangers.  The 4 divisional games will be played over the course of 8-days, with all but the game against the Senators coming on the road.  With crucial division points on the line, the Penguins will need to be clicking when they hit that stretch in mid-December as they try to crawl up the points ladder and out of the Atlantic Division basement.  The last third of the month is no cakewalk with 3-games in a 4-day span from 20-23 Dec, against 2-teams well above 0.500 in the Boston Bruins and division rival Islanders.  Post Christmas, the Penguins take on the struggling Capitals and then the Buffalo Sabres in a preview to the outdoor Winter Classic which will be played a few days later on New Year’s Day. 

Last season, the Penguins endured a rough December going 5-7-2 before unleashing the beast and going 8-2-2 in January, 9-3-1 in February, 12-3-2 in March, and 2-1-0 in April.  I think it is unlikely that the Penguins will have similar success in the latter half of this season, so they need to be scratching for every point that they can get along the way to ensure that they can find their way into the playoffs.  I believe that if the Penguins can hit their stride in December, that they have the potential to pick up about 18 of 28 available points on the month.  This will require continued offensive output outside of Gonchar, Sykora, Crosby and Malkin.  It will also require a much more consistent level of play from Marc-Andre Fleury, as well as the defnsive corps playing in front of him.  The last two games offer some hope that this could be the case in December.  A confident Penguins team will be a dangerous team, as was evidenced in the second half of last year.  Let’s hope that the Penguins find and build on that confidence soon.