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Race to 4 in High Gear

A Penguin win in Game 4 of the Stanley Cups Finals Thursday night changes the complexion of the series. The fourth game in six nights seemed to take its toll on the Detroit Red Wings, but it could be argued that the Wings were beginning to feel the effects back in the latter part of Game 3.

Game 3 was not the Penguins’ best game and lacked consistency. They will tell you this, but they got what they needed: a solid effort by netminder Marc-Andre Fleury who weathered a barrage of 14 Wings shots on net in yet another troubling second period, holding their opponent scoreless.

Game 3 Notables–while a bit ugly, a win is a win, and it had elements in it that showed the character of the team as well as their depth:

• Hits–a staggering 36 hits executed by Penguins on Red Wings. Chris Kunitz led the way with a Herculean personal effort, laying 11 hits on the opponent. Both Matt Cooke and Brooks Orpik chipped in for 5 hits each, and while these three guys had the lion’s share of it, they were by no means the only ones. No less than 14 of the 18 players had at least one hit.
• Blocked Shots–Penguins had a total of 18 blocked shots; Jordan Staal led the way with 3 and 13 other team mates had at least 1 blocked shot, showing their total commitment to protecting Fleury.
• Second Line Gellin’–Something about Mad Max Talbot has ignited linemates Evgeni Malkin and Ruslan Fedotenko. Talbot managed 2 goals, and he keeps the line loose. As Geno congenially noted about Max in the press conference, teasing: ”little bit bad hands…missed lots of chances…has summer to learn,” but the big Russian center gave his recent winger high praise for his energy and work ethic. Clearly, this line is clicking.

On to Game 4

Thursday night’s second home game of the series for the Pens picked up where the previous game left off as the Penguins scored yet another power play goal. Play was much more consistent from first period to last with surges by the Red Wings, particularly when they managed a late first period goal to draw even, and then opened the second period with a go-ahead goal. That was the last time they led in the game.

Notables

• Special Teams #1 (Power Play)–The one special teams element that had been plaguing this crew all season long and early in the playoff run has awakened, and that’s dangerous for the Red Wings who fall in the middle of the NHL pack on penalty killing. So far in this series, the Penguins power play is humming along at 45.5%.
• Special Teams #2 (Penalty Kill)–Not to be outdone was the Pens’ penalty kill unit. After the Wings had gone up 2-1, Malkin rallied the troops with a short-handed break-away that Chris Osgood managed to turn back, but that was only the first wave. The Penguins’ PK continued to battle hard and both Talbot and Staal broke loose. Talbot laid a perfect pass to Staal who took off, drew even with Wings’ defenseman,  Brian Rafalski, turned on the jets with his characteristic left-handed power move and drew Osgood off his line, deking him for a great short-handed goal that pulled the Penguins even at 2 and turned the tide.
• A Flurry of Fleury, Part II–Marc-Andre Fleury hit his stride in this game, turning in an even more spectacular performance as he turned away 39 shots, broken down by period: 19/9/11. His stick handling around the back of the net was less nerve-wracking and more sure, and his team gave up the body on 15 shots led by defensemen Brooks Orpik and Rob Scuderi who stopped 3 each.
• Hits, Hits, and More Hits–The Penguins’ hit total stayed in the 30s (32), and the Wings pulled themselves up and matched the Penguins’ physicality with 33 hits for a game total of 65 hits. Thus far, these two teams have exchanged 267 hits, averaging 33 per game, and yet, the Pens continue to look fresh and ready to lay on more with mustard.
• Tic-Tac-Toe–The cherry on top, as if the previous three Penguins’ goals could not be bested, was the textbook tape to tape (to tape) passing from Chris Kunitz, across to Sidney Crosby, and back again to Tyler Kennedy who buried a one-timer blocker side before Osgood had a chance to finish tracking Kunitz’ pass.

Prior to tonight, Marian Hossa had consistently scored 2 goals in Game 4 of each round of this season’s playoffs. The Penguins got the memo, keeping Hossa pointless on 6 shots. It is noticeable that Hossa does not have the same first-step quickness he possessed in the first two games.

As a whole, where the Wings looked gassed at the end of Game 3, they were showing signs of not being able to sustain surges for very long, starting after their early second period goal. These surges became fewer and for shorter duration as the game wore on. It was very apparent in the last part of the third period as the Penguins imposed their will, wearing down the clock and making Detroit come the full 200 feet with the puck.

Game 4 is an encouraging sign that the Pens are for real and real serious. The fact that they are heading into Detroit’s house on Saturday seems less of a factor than it did in the first two games. It is as if the team, like Jordan Staal according to Coach Dan Bylsma, needed to get a feel for the style of the Wings’ play after coming off seven games against the Caps’ style. It seems they have acclimated.

Keeping the Faith–Who’s Giving Up?

 

Anyone disheartened by the 2 games to none deficit that the Penguins face has a pretty short memory and needs to take heart: Remember the Caps. For a little perspective, compare not only how close both teams were on the superstats sheets. Compare the stats of the Caps versus those of Detroit in their respective opening home-ice playoff series games, and what is revealed is just how many notches have been kicked up.

Games 1 & 2 Comparisons

While it is a bit tricky to look at stats textually, it is worth the effort because upon careful review, there are reasons to remain as confident as the Penguins are:

• Shots–Pens (72) vs. Caps (59) TO Pens (64) vs. Wings (56)–only 8 shots less over two games compared to the Caps series.
• Missed Shots–Pens (31) vs. Caps (23) TO Pens (18) vs. Wings (27)–Pens have brought down their missed shots total significantly (by 13) while the opponents they faced were in the mid- to high 20s.
• Hits–Pens (40) vs. Caps (51) TO Pens (72) vs. Wings (77)–While the Caps series appeared to be pretty heavy-hitting and physical, when compard to the Wings series, this is a huge statistic and speaks to the heightened physicality of this series. It also shows that the Pens are holding their own and giving as good as they are getting.
• Giveaways–Pens (16) vs. Caps (38) TO Pens (25) vs. Wings (41)–While the Pens have increased slightly in the number of giveaways, the Wings, surprisingly have given up the puck 16 more times, showing that the Pens are applying decent pressure and forcing turnovers.
• Takeaways–Pens (10) vs. Caps (24) TO Pens (17) vs. Wings (20)–Pens have improved on their takeaways in the Detroit series, up by 7 from the Caps series. Also, Detroit has managed four fewer than the Caps could against the Pens.
• Blocked Shots–Pens (37) vs. Caps (40) TO Pens (24) vs. Wings (21)–hard to tell from these numbers, but one possible reason for fewer blocked shots is that more shots may be coming beyond potential blockers where a defender is clearly beaten.
• Faceoff Percentage–Out of 121 draws, Pens (55 for 45%) vs. Caps (66 for 55%) TO out of 106 draws, Pens (43 for 41%) vs. Wings (63 for 59%)–There is room for improvement on the faceoffs; however, in Game 1 to Game 2 comparisons in each series, the Pens actually got worse in the Caps series going from 53% to 38%. In the Detroit series, the Pens improved considerably from Game 1 to Game 2, going from 29% to 53%.

What is Working and What Needs Improvement (Pros ‘n’ Cons)

1. Shots are staying above 30. More couldn’t hurt, but play needs to be smart. If Crosby and Malkin (and Bill Guerin and Jordan Staal lately) are drawing two and sometimes three guys to them like bees to honey, that means their linemates and even a pinching point man are wide open on the weak side of Osgood. Plays like the Crosby to Guerin goal in Game 1 and the Fedotenko goal off a Malkin shot strong side that rebounded wide weak side are what’s called for. In the latter case, Feds didn’t sit and watch the beauty of Malkin’s shot. He took off for Osgood’s blind side and buried a weak but juicy rebound. This is what beat Washington’s Varlamov and Carolina’s Ward. This is what was starting to have Osgood look over his left shoulder on more than a few occasions in the latter half of Game 2. Good news for the Pens and something they can capitalize on.
2. Hits are high. It does not matter how big a guy is, an older body taking those kinds of hits night after night in intense playoff finals mode is going to show the ill effects. The Pens need to keep pummeling; however, they need to get to the high side of their opponent to keep him from clearing the puck into the neutral zone for a rush the other way. Instead, they need to position checks in a way that forces Detroit to have to push the puck deeper in the ends of the rink whether in the offensive or defensive zone. The Pens started to make that adjustment in the 3rd period. They are also learning to elude hits, particularly the Pens defensemen when they go into their own end for the puck. They smartly let the Wings go in just ahead of them and then pin them to the boards and fight for the puck. Open ice hits–love ‘em when they are legal. Hossa and Zetterberg could stand to be on the receiving end of several more.
3. Powerplay–Well…hard to do much when penalties are not being called. The bright side is that the one man-advantage situation the Pens had resulted in a goal, putting them at 100% for the game, which is a 100% improvement from Game 1.
4. Penalties–Without delving too deeply into the debate over the refs swallowing their whistles as much as they have, the one thing the Pens need to do is to just play to the whistle regardless if they think the ref should have called something. Case in point: the Hossa slash on Pascal Dupuis. While appalling, Dupuis needed to play on and quickly because his delay and that of his fellow team mates gave the Wings an opportunity they capitalized on. Which brings up…
5. Goaltending–The higher the stakes, the more it comes down to goaltending, especially in games (series) where all else is fairly equal and hotly contested. Something has got to give, and usually it is the goalie–who blinks first. Like Varlamov, Osgood is winning the battle between the pipes against his counterpart at the other end, Marc-Andre Fleury. However, like Varlamov (and Ward), he is human, and he can be shaken, rattled, and rolled–and beaten. He is starting to second-guess his saves. In Game 1, he was standing up confidently, absorbing shots, and deflecting any rebounds to the corner and out of danger. In Game 2, as the game progressed, he was letting more rebounds get away from him, and he was starting to flop and flail. This is good. Fleury needs to get back up to the low 90s in save percentage. The good news is that his record for consecutively poor games usually does not venture above two, and when he rallies back, he does so with a vengeance. That would be Game 3.

To think this Stanley Cup Final would be over in the Penguins’ favor in five games might be a little naive. However, in six is not out of the realm of possibility, but given how this series is so similar to the Caps series, one should not be surprised that this will go the full seven games. If that’s the case, which team does that favor? The longer the series, the more it plays to the Penguins.

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